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Rankings
#41 of 106 in Division 5
#11 of 28 in Region 17
Strength of schedule #8 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #46 in D5 (-75 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 3-0 A #266 Smithville (4-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 9 (34%), perf. rating 111
08/29 W 38-7 H #657 Chippewa (0-4) D6 R21, pick: W by 33 (95%), perf. rating 87
09/05 W 43-20 H #415 Caldwell (2-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 4 (41%), perf. rating 125
09/12 L 38-7 H #174 Orrville (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 21 (11%), perf. rating 79
09/19 H #128 Triway (3-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 28 (4%)
09/26 A #177 Manchester (Akron) (4-0) D5 R17, pick: L by 25 (6%)
10/03 A #374 Toronto (4-0) D6 R23, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/10 A #147 Northwest (Canal Fult.) (2-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 28 (3%)
10/17 H #294 Canton South (1-3) D4 R15, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/24 A #311 Fairless (3-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 8 (30%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
5.95 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R17 playoffs
Playoff chances now
20% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.05 ( 5.39-21.48) 78% in, 25% home, 3% bye, proj. #10 (#2-out), Garfield (3-1) 14%
Lose: 6.35 ( 1.96-17.90) 17% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Garfield (3-1) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 6W: 13.56 (11.34-17.30) 99% in, 42% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Liberty (3-1) 16%
(14%) 5W: 10.48 ( 8.06-14.47) 75% in, 4% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Garfield (3-1) 13%
(24%) 4W: 8.16 ( 5.59-12.16) 19% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Garfield (3-1) 15%
(31%) 3W: 5.95 ( 3.02- 8.98) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(27%) 2W: 3.17 ( 1.96- 5.24) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWWLWW: 13.56 (12.04-16.39) 100% in, 51% home, proj. #8 (#6-#12), Liberty (3-1) 16%
( 9%) LLWLWW: 10.43 ( 8.16-12.71) 70% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Garfield (3-1) 14%
( 7%) LLWLLW: 8.62 ( 7.21-10.94) 29% in, proj. out (#9-out), Garfield (3-1) 15%
( 9%) LLWLWL: 8.16 ( 5.79-10.94) 10% in, proj. out (#9-out), Poland Seminary (3-1) 17%
(15%) LLWLLL: 6.71 ( 5.04- 8.52) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Edison (Richmond) (3-1) 14%
( 7%) LLLLLW: 5.34 ( 4.13- 8.12) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Edison (Richmond) (3-1) 100%
( 8%) LLLLWL: 4.53 ( 3.02- 6.81) out
(27%) LLLLLL: 3.17 ( 1.96- 5.24) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 101.8, #359, D5 #41), 20% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (2-1, 101.1, #368, D5 #44), 26% (bubble if 4-6), 8% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 91.1, #424, D5 #58), 11% (bubble if 4-6), 4% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 87.3, #457, D5 #65), 8% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 85.7, #483, D5 #65), 18% (bubble if 6-4), 9% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 88.9