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Rankings
#30 of 105 in Division 5
#8 of 27 in Region 17
Strength of schedule #11 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #29 in D5 (+20 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 21-14 H #170 Smithville (3-0) D6 R21, pick: W by 4 (56%), perf. rating 114
08/28 W 14-13 A #429 Chippewa (2-1) D6 R21, pick: W by 28 (92%), perf. rating 94
09/04 W 45-14 A #453 Caldwell (1-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 135
09/11 A #282 Orrville (2-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 1 (48%)
09/18 A #115 Triway (3-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 23 (8%)
09/25 H #225 Manchester (Akron) (0-3) D5 R17, pick: L by 5 (38%)
10/02 H #318 Toronto (3-0) D7 R27, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/09 H #219 Northwest (Canal Fult.) (3-0) D4 R13, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/16 A #386 Canton South (0-3) D4 R15, pick: W by 14 (82%)
10/23 H #381 Fairless (2-1) D5 R17, pick: W by 18 (88%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
14.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#8 seed in R17 playoffs
Playoff chances now
75% (bubble if 4-6), 45% home (maybe if 6-4), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 17.10 ( 4.40-28.20) 93% in, 70% home, 22% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 24%
Lose: 10.32 ( 2.75-24.65) 58% in, 23% home, 2% bye, proj. #12 (#2-out), Martins Ferry (3-0) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 9W: 25.50 (22.50-28.20) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(12%) 8W: 21.10 (17.75-26.25) 100% home, 55% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 55%
(17%) 7W: 17.75 (14.15-23.70) 100% in, 96% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), Canton Central Catholic (1-2) 16%
(18%) 6W: 14.55 (10.90-20.30) 99% in, 59% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Martins Ferry (3-0) 17%
(19%) 5W: 11.50 ( 7.80-16.95) 90% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Martins Ferry (3-0) 15%
(15%) 4W: 8.85 ( 5.55-13.95) 41% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Garfield (3-0) 16%
(10%) 3W: 6.40 ( 3.30-11.15) 5% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Garfield (3-0) 22%
( 5%) 2W: 4.35 ( 2.75- 6.80) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWWWW: 25.50 (22.50-28.20) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 9%) WLWWWWW: 20.95 (17.75-24.05) 100% home, 50% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 50%
( 5%) WLLWWWW: 18.15 (15.65-22.35) 100% in, 96% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Canton Central Catholic (1-2) 15%
( 4%) LLWWWWW: 17.65 (15.00-22.05) 100% in, 98% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Canton Central Catholic (1-2) 17%
( 5%) WLWWLWW: 16.60 (14.15-19.95) 100% in, 93% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Canton Central Catholic (1-2) 17%
( 4%) LLLWWWW: 15.05 (12.10-19.25) 99% in, 65% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Martins Ferry (3-0) 17%
( 6%) LLLWLWW: 11.28 ( 8.60-14.50) 89% in, 7% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Girard (3-0) 15%
( 5%) LLLLLLL: 4.35 ( 2.75- 6.80) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Conneaut (3-0) 100%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 113.0, #273, D5 #30), 75% (bubble if 4-6), 45% home (maybe if 6-4), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 100.7, #359, D5 #45), 30% (bubble if 4-6), 15% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 103.0, #345, D5 #41), 36% (bubble if 5-5), 20% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 108.0, #293, D5 #36), 51% (bubble if 5-5), 32% home (maybe if 6-4), 15% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Last season 115.0