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Rankings
#62 of 101 in Division 4
#15 of 24 in Region 13
Strength of schedule #11 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #68 in D4 (-320 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 42-16 H #110 Notre Dame-Cath. Latin (2-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 24 (14%), perf. rating 96
08/28 L 18-6 A #359 John F Kennedy (Warren) (1-2) D6 R21, pick: W by 7 (64%), perf. rating 85
09/04 L 34-8 A #69 West Branch (3-0) D4 R13, pick: L by 39 (1%), perf. rating 108
09/11 H #142 Girard (3-0) D5 R17, pick: L by 28 (5%)
09/18 A #60 South Range (3-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 39 (1%)
09/25 A #321 Hubbard (1-2) D4 R13, pick: L by 11 (24%)
10/02 H #527 Lakeview (1-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/09 H #303 University School (2-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 8 (30%)
10/16 A #440 Niles McKinley (1-2) D4 R13, pick: W by 7 (68%)
10/23 H #85 Poland Seminary (1-2) D4 R13, pick: L by 33 (1%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
2.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R13 playoffs
Playoff chances now
3% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.80 ( 2.90-18.75) 32% in, 2% home, proj. out (#7-out), East (Akron) (2-1) 14%
Lose: 2.80 ( 0.00-15.60) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), West Geauga (3-0) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 5W: 11.15 ( 8.20-14.45) 71% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Northwest (Canal Fult.) (3-0) 14%
(12%) 4W: 7.80 ( 5.75-11.95) 8% in, proj. out (#10-out), West Geauga (3-0) 24%
(24%) 3W: 5.35 ( 3.90- 9.75) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(32%) 2W: 2.80 ( 2.30- 7.45) out, proj. out
(24%) 1W: 0.95 ( 0.90- 4.25) out, proj. out
( 5%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WLWWWWL: 11.28 ( 9.75-13.55) 69% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), West Geauga (3-0) 15%
( 9%) LLWWWWL: 7.70 ( 5.75-10.25) 5% in, proj. out (#11-out), West Geauga (3-0) 28%
(12%) LLLWWWL: 5.45 ( 3.90- 8.60) out
( 7%) LLWWLWL: 4.65 ( 4.20- 6.55) out
( 4%) LLLWWLL: 3.60 ( 2.50- 6.25) out
(22%) LLLWLWL: 2.80 ( 2.35- 4.30) out
(20%) LLLWLLL: 0.95 ( 0.95- 2.80) out
( 5%) LLLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (0-3, 97.7, #379, D4 #62), 3% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 94.5, #401, D4 #64), 4% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 104.0, #336, D4 #48), 32% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 107.5, #296, D4 #38), 40% (bubble if 4-6), 19% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 97.4