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Rankings
#64 of 105 in Division 4
#15 of 26 in Region 13
Strength of schedule #7 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #62 in D4 (-212 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 50-8 A #120 Notre Dame-Cath. Latin (3-1) D4 R13, pick: W by 11 (69%), perf. rating 77
08/29 L 27-12 A #238 Chaney (1-3) D3 R9, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 97
09/05 L 55-6 H #85 West Branch (3-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 22 (11%), perf. rating 80
09/12 L 48-12 A #137 Girard (4-0) D5 R17, pick: L by 24 (8%), perf. rating 82
09/19 H #98 South Range (3-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 33 (2%)
09/26 H #201 Hubbard (4-0) D4 R13, pick: L by 22 (8%)
10/03 A #378 Lakeview (2-2) D5 R17, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/10 H #302 Youngstown East (3-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/17 H #546 Niles McKinley (0-4) D4 R13, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/24 A #126 Poland Seminary (3-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 32 (2%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
2.87 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R13 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.42 ( 2.52-17.75) 18% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out)
Lose: 2.36 ( 0.00-15.33) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 4W: 9.88 ( 7.81-12.91) 14% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(17%) 3W: 6.40 ( 4.38-10.34) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(34%) 2W: 2.87 ( 2.31- 8.02) out, proj. out
(40%) 1W: 0.50 ( 0.50- 4.64) out, proj. out
( 4%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWWWWL: 9.88 ( 7.81-11.90) 13% in, proj. out (#11-out), Notre Dame-Cath. Latin (3-1) 19%
(12%) LLWWWL: 6.40 ( 4.38- 9.03) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Streetsboro (3-1) 100%
( 2%) LWWLWL: 6.30 ( 5.24- 8.12) out
(10%) LLLWWL: 4.03 ( 2.51- 6.00) out
( 2%) LWLLWL: 3.93 ( 2.92- 5.29) out
(20%) LLWLWL: 2.82 ( 2.31- 4.74) out
(39%) LLLLWL: 0.50 ( 0.50- 1.51) out
( 4%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 97.8, #387, D4 #64), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (0-3, 102.9, #358, D4 #56), 9% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 106.4, #317, D4 #46), 24% (bubble if 4-6), 7% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 114.1, #263, D4 #36), 45% (bubble if 4-6), 25% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 139.1, #107, D4 #11), 85% (bubble if 4-6), 70% home (maybe if 6-4), 43% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Last season 139.9