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Rankings
#87 of 105 in Division 4
#24 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #98 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #103 in D4 (-860 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 39-26 A #329 Fairview (Fairv. Park) (2-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 15 (75%), perf. rating 88
08/29 L 35-14 H #471 Westlake (2-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 7 (64%), perf. rating 50
09/05 L 28-3 H #302 Youngstown East (3-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 13 (23%), perf. rating 70
09/12 L 22-7 H #399 Black River (2-2) D6 R21, pick: L by 5 (38%), perf. rating 71
09/19 A #597 Wellington (2-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 13 (79%)
09/26 H #496 Firelands (1-3) D4 R14, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/03 H #632 Brookside (0-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/10 A #662 Oberlin (2-2) D7 R25, pick: W by 28 (97%)
10/17 A #296 Columbia (4-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 29 (3%)
10/24 H #418 Keystone (2-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 14 (18%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
4.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
6% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.00 ( 1.20-14.30) 8% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 16%
Lose: 2.30 ( 0.00-11.75) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 6W: 13.00 (12.35-14.30) 97% in, 14% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 19%
(14%) 5W: 9.05 ( 8.55-12.50) 32% in, proj. out (#9-out), Bay (3-1) 15%
(32%) 4W: 6.32 ( 5.70- 9.40) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(34%) 3W: 4.20 ( 3.50- 7.80) out, proj. out
(14%) 2W: 2.30 ( 1.50- 5.60) out, proj. out
( 3%) 1W: 1.30 ( 0.50- 2.55) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWW: 13.00 (12.35-14.30) 97% in, 14% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 19%
(12%) WWWWLW: 9.00 ( 8.55-10.45) 28% in, proj. out (#10-out), Bay (3-1) 16%
( 6%) WLWWLW: 6.90 ( 6.30- 8.45) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Bay (3-1) 43%
(24%) WWWWLL: 6.10 ( 5.95- 8.05) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Bay (3-1) 27%
(25%) WLWWLL: 4.20 ( 4.15- 6.35) out
( 4%) LWWWLL: 3.95 ( 3.50- 5.85) out
( 9%) LLWWLL: 2.15 ( 2.15- 3.55) out
( 2%) LLLWLL: 1.30 ( 1.30- 2.30) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 76.7, #521, D4 #87), 6% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (0-3, 82.6, #486, D4 #80), 23% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (0-2, 84.2, #470, D4 #79), 29% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 94.8, #405, D4 #65), 48% (bubble if 6-4), 25% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 106.6, #304, D4 #47), 79% (bubble if 5-5), 60% home (maybe if 7-3), 27% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 8-2
Last season 103.9