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Region 14 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#92 of 101 in Division 4
#25 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #81 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #97 in D4 (-888 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 40-30 H #549 Shaw (1-3) D5 R17, pick: W by 16 (77%), perf. rating 54
08/28 L 57-18 A #455 Westlake (2-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 14 (24%), perf. rating 30
09/04 L 42-0 H #264 Vermilion (3-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 35 (3%), perf. rating 51
09/11 L 41-28 A #470 Black River (1-3) D6 R21, pick: L by 26 (6%), perf. rating 67
09/18 H #642 Wellington (0-3) D6 R21, pick: W by 18 (87%)
09/25 A #395 Firelands (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/02 A #508 Brookside (0-4) D4 R14, pick: L by 18 (12%)
10/09 H #355 Mogadore (3-1) D7 R25, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/16 H #234 Columbia (4-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 39 (1%)
10/23 A #228 Keystone (3-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 41 (1%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
0.76 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 2-8 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 0.76 ( 0.40-12.76) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Lose: 0.00 ( 0.00- 7.79) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 3W: 5.02 ( 3.65- 8.95) 5% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(16%) 2W: 1.77 ( 1.31- 7.79) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(70%) 1W: 0.76 ( 0.40- 4.38) out, proj. out
(11%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WLLLLW: 4.98 ( 3.66- 5.54) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 100%
( 1%) WLWWLL: 4.72 ( 3.65- 6.20) 2% in, proj. out (#12-out), Bellevue (3-1) 50%
( 1%) WLLLWL: 4.68 ( 3.25- 5.65) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 100%
( 2%) WLLWLL: 3.76 ( 2.54- 5.29) out
( 2%) WWLLLL: 3.71 ( 2.94- 5.08) out
(11%) WLWLLL: 1.67 ( 1.31- 2.99) out
(69%) WLLLLL: 0.76 ( 0.40- 2.13) out
(11%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 61.7, #588, D4 #92), 1% (must have at least 2-8 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 3 (0-3, 63.2, #582, D4 #91), 1% (must have at least 2-8 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 2 (0-2, 70.9, #555, D4 #87), 5% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 81.0, #489, D4 #76), 19% (bubble if 5-5), 7% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 91.3, #434, D4 #68), 57% (bubble if 5-5), 34% home (maybe if 7-3), 9% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 6-4
Last season 87.8