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Rankings
#71 of 105 in Division 4
#20 of 28 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #89 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #43 in D4 (-65 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 31-17 H Boyd County KY (3-1) D3
08/29 L 56-3 A #142 Jackson (3-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 37 (3%), perf. rating 73
09/05 W 28-21 A Point Pleasant WV (0-2) D4
09/12 W 28-14 H #468 Portsmouth (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 13 (22%), perf. rating 102
09/19 A #484 Fairland (1-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 6 (65%)
09/26 H #402 Dawson-Bryant (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 4 (40%)
10/03 A #472 Rock Hill (3-1) D6 R24, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/10 H #631 Chesapeake (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 30 (98%)
10/17 H #14 Ironton (4-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 49 (1%)
10/24 A #589 South Point (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 23 (93%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
11.83 Harbin points (divisor 97)
#12 seed in R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
39% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 11.93 ( 3.87-21.13) 54% in, 10% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#3-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 12%
Lose: 8.40 ( 2.34-18.67) 12% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
(24%) 7W: 14.90 (13.31-18.67) 98% in, 25% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Circleville (4-0) 12%
(30%) 6W: 11.83 ( 9.86-15.95) 49% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 15%
(25%) 5W: 9.11 ( 6.79-14.16) 3% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(15%) 4W: 6.75 ( 4.58-11.59) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 4%) 3W: 5.06 ( 2.74- 7.59) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(23%) WWWWLW: 14.90 (13.31-16.97) 98% in, 24% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Philo (3-1) 12%
( 5%) LWWWLW: 12.60 (10.54-15.59) 63% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 15%
(17%) WLWWLW: 11.77 (10.23-15.23) 44% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Jonathan Alder (4-0) 17%
( 7%) WWLWLW: 11.46 ( 9.86-14.35) 41% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 19%
( 9%) LLWWLW: 9.52 ( 7.92-12.41) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out), West Holmes (3-1) 22%
(10%) WLLWLW: 8.69 ( 7.20-10.65) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), East (Columbus) (3-1) 33%
(10%) LLLWLW: 6.44 ( 4.89- 9.27) out
( 3%) LLLWLL: 4.70 ( 2.74- 6.61) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 89.4, #436, D4 #71), 39% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 3 (1-2, 77.4, #512, D4 #88), 7% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 78.0, #523, D4 #86), 3% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 80.9, #506, D4 #85), 8% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 80.9, #510, D4 #85), 17% (bubble if 5-5), 5% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 69.1