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Rankings
#73 of 105 in Division 5
#18 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #94 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #27 in D5 (+45 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 30-27 A #485 Eastern (Beaver) (1-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 25 (13%), perf. rating 88
08/28 W 38-0 H #656 Southern (Racine) (0-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 24 (89%), perf. rating 94
09/04 A #620 Wellston (1-1) D5 R19, pick: W by 21 (88%)
09/11 H #370 Symmes Valley (2-0) D7 R27, pick: L by 18 (14%)
09/18 A #472 Rock Hill (1-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 7 (33%)
09/25 A #369 Fairland (1-1) D5 R19, pick: L by 22 (8%)
10/02 H #646 Chesapeake (0-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 30 (97%)
10/09 H #479 Dawson-Bryant (0-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 2 (45%)
10/16 H #491 Portsmouth (0-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/23 A #495 Gallia Academy (0-2) D3 R11, pick: L by 3 (42%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
3.34 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#10 seed in R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
62% (bubble if 5-5), 32% home (maybe if 7-3), 9% bye (likely needs 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 3.36 ( 1.51- 6.26) 67% in, 35% home, 10% bye, proj. #10 (#1-out), bye 15%
Lose: 2.10 ( 0.95- 5.40) 19% in, 5% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Piketon (2-0) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 9W: 5.31 ( 5.00- 5.64) 100% home, 83% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 83%
(12%) 8W: 4.63 ( 4.34- 5.02) 100% in, 98% home, 18% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 18%
(16%) 7W: 3.96 ( 3.58- 4.35) 99% in, 64% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Ridgewood (1-1) 14%
(21%) 6W: 3.34 ( 3.00- 3.88) 91% in, 8% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Ridgewood (1-1) 13%
(21%) 5W: 2.74 ( 2.36- 3.10) 31% in, proj. out (#9-out), Piketon (2-0) 19%
(16%) 4W: 2.15 ( 1.94- 2.46) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 6%) 3W: 1.60 ( 1.44- 1.84) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WLWWWWWW: 5.33 ( 5.17- 5.63) 100% home, 91% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 91%
( 6%) WLWLWWWW: 4.59 ( 4.36- 4.92) 100% in, 98% home, 13% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), bye 13%
( 4%) WLLLWWWW: 3.98 ( 3.74- 4.29) 100% in, 65% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Ridgewood (1-1) 15%
( 4%) WLLLWLWW: 3.38 ( 3.15- 3.68) 92% in, 8% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Piketon (2-0) 16%
( 5%) WLLLWWLL: 2.70 ( 2.48- 2.97) 29% in, proj. out (#9-out), Piketon (2-0) 20%
( 6%) WLLLWLWL: 2.69 ( 2.36- 3.10) 29% in, proj. out (#9-out), Wheelersburg (1-1) 18%
(12%) WLLLWLLL: 2.15 ( 1.96- 2.40) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Wheelersburg (1-1) 33%
( 4%) LLLLWLLL: 1.58 ( 1.44- 1.69) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (2-0, 79.0, #503, D5 #73), 63% (bubble if 5-5), 30% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 73.0, #540, D5 #80), 38% (bubble if 6-4), 16% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 62.1, #595, D5 #91), 15% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 66.7