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Rankings
#89 of 105 in Division 5
#23 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #93 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #82 in D5 (-507 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 55-13 H #293 Symmes Valley (3-0) D7 R27, pick: L by 5 (41%), perf. rating 45
08/28 L 28-13 A #598 Minford (1-2) D6 R24, pick: L by 9 (33%), perf. rating 40
09/04 W 35-6 H #646 Northwest (McDermott) (0-3) D6 R24, pick: L by 17 (17%), perf. rating 85
09/11 H #503 Dawson-Bryant (0-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 18 (14%)
09/18 H #627 Notre Dame (2-1) D7 R27, pick: W by 10 (73%)
09/25 H #508 Portsmouth (0-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 17 (14%)
10/02 A #456 South Point (3-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 26 (5%)
10/09 H #496 Gallia Academy (0-3) D3 R11, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/16 A #464 Rock Hill (1-2) D6 R24, pick: L by 25 (5%)
10/23 A #373 Fairland (2-1) D5 R19, pick: L by 33 (1%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
2.62 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
4% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.13 ( 0.85-16.78) 15% in, 4% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Wheelersburg (1-2) 15%
Lose: 2.97 ( 0.40-14.11) 2% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Wheelersburg (1-2) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 7W: 12.32 (10.93-14.62) 100% in, 69% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Grove City Christian (0-3) 14%
( 2%) 6W: 9.62 ( 7.25-13.56) 76% in, 9% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Wheelersburg (1-2) 17%
( 5%) 5W: 7.25 ( 5.03-11.34) 19% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Wheelersburg (1-2) 19%
(11%) 4W: 5.39 ( 3.47- 9.68) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(23%) 3W: 3.88 ( 1.75- 7.76) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(38%) 2W: 2.62 ( 0.85- 5.34) out, proj. out
(20%) 1W: 0.80 ( 0.40- 3.03) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWWWWLL: 7.45 ( 6.19- 9.42) 19% in, proj. out (#10-out), Fairland (2-1) 26%
( 2%) LWLWLLL: 5.04 ( 3.83- 7.31) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Fairland (2-1) 100%
( 3%) LWLLLWL: 4.23 ( 3.02- 6.71) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Columbus Academy (1-2) 100%
( 4%) WWLLLLL: 3.62 ( 2.66- 6.35) out
( 6%) LWLLWLL: 3.62 ( 2.76- 5.74) out
( 6%) LWWLLLL: 3.52 ( 2.66- 6.20) out
(32%) LWLLLLL: 2.69 ( 1.86- 4.69) out
(20%) LLLLLLL: 0.80 ( 0.40- 3.03) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 59.4, #599, D5 #89), 4% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 44.4, #646, D5 #97), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 1 (0-1, 43.6, #650, D5 #99), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 0 (0-0, 61.4, #602, D5 #93), 16% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 57.5