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Rankings
#30 of 107 in Division 3
#7 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #63 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #36 in D3 (-10 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/23 W 21-14 H #214 Little Miami (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 28 (90%), perf. rating 129
08/29 W 56-3 H #436 Gallia Academy (2-2) D4 R15, pick: W by 37 (97%), perf. rating 150
09/05 L 17-7 H #94 Wheelersburg (4-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 5 (39%), perf. rating 125
09/12 W 49-14 A #448 Western Brown (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 31 (97%), perf. rating 141
09/19 A #14 Ironton (4-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 33 (2%)
09/26 A #346 Hillsboro (3-1) D3 R12, pick: W by 25 (94%)
10/03 H #571 McClain (3-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 45 (99%)
10/10 A #325 Washington (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/17 A #276 Miami Trace (4-0) D3 R12, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/24 H #326 Chillicothe (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 26 (96%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
22.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#4 seed in R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
98% (likely needs 6-4), 88% home (maybe if 7-3), 39% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 26.95 (18.20-30.70) 100% in, 99% home, 89% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#9), bye 89%
Lose: 21.90 ( 4.80-27.40) 98% in, 88% home, 37% bye, proj. #5 (#2-out), bye 38%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 9W: 27.25 (23.55-30.70) 100% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#4), bye 100%
(70%) 8W: 22.40 (19.35-27.40) 100% in, 99% home, 51% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#9), bye 51%
(21%) 7W: 18.20 (14.25-24.30) 100% in, 73% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Archbishop McNicholas (2-2) 14%
( 5%) 6W: 14.40 (10.60-19.10) 88% in, 7% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Talawanda (4-0) 16%
( 1%) 5W: 10.75 ( 7.85-14.50) 18% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 27.25 (23.55-30.70) 100% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#4), bye 100%
(70%) LWWWWW: 22.40 (19.35-27.40) 100% in, 99% home, 51% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#9), bye 51%
( 4%) LWWWWL: 19.15 (16.20-22.30) 100% in, 86% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Bellbrook (2-2) 13%
( 4%) LWWLWW: 18.85 (15.45-22.30) 100% in, 89% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Archbishop McNicholas (2-2) 15%
( 3%) LLWWWW: 18.25 (15.45-22.65) 100% in, 69% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Archbishop McNicholas (2-2) 12%
( 9%) LWWWLW: 17.30 (14.25-21.55) 100% in, 61% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Bellbrook (2-2) 15%
( 1%) LWWWLL: 14.20 (12.35-17.40) 88% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Archbishop Alter (2-2) 21%
( 1%) LWWLLW: 14.20 (11.50-16.95) 93% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Archbishop McNicholas (2-2) 17%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 133.2, #142, D3 #30), 98% (likely needs 6-4), 88% home (maybe if 7-3), 39% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 129.2, #168, D3 #37), 94% (bubble if 6-4), 73% home (maybe if 7-3), 10% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 131.5, #147, D3 #27), 89% (bubble if 6-4), 65% home (likely needs 8-2), 17% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 128.9, #159, D3 #31), 84% (bubble if 6-4), 52% home (maybe if 8-2), 12% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 135.6, #120, D3 #27), 91% (bubble if 5-5), 70% home (maybe if 7-3), 25% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 8-2
Last season 134.6