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Rankings
#63 of 107 in Division 6
#14 of 27 in Region 24
Strength of schedule #74 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #37 in D6 (+20 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 49-20 H #598 Minford (1-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 23 (85%), perf. rating 101
08/28 L 39-36 A Boyd County KY (3-0) D3
09/04 L 47-7 H Mid. Tenn. Christian TN (2-1) D7
09/11 H #373 Fairland (2-1) D5 R19, pick: L by 12 (24%)
09/18 H #456 South Point (3-0) D5 R19, pick: W by 1 (52%)
09/25 A #409 Purcell Marian (2-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 11 (24%)
10/02 A #496 Gallia Academy (0-3) D3 R11, pick: W by 3 (58%)
10/09 A #508 Portsmouth (0-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/16 H #599 Chesapeake (1-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/23 A #503 Dawson-Bryant (0-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 4 (60%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
8.78 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R24 playoffs
Playoff chances now
39% (bubble if 5-5), 17% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.76 ( 2.64-20.49) 81% in, 51% home, 7% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Versailles (2-1) 10%
Lose: 6.60 ( 0.86-17.33) 25% in, 6% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-0) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 8W: 17.83 (16.05-20.49) 100% in, 99% home, 29% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 29%
(12%) 7W: 14.48 (11.98-17.84) 99% in, 73% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Madison-Plains (3-0) 13%
(16%) 6W: 11.42 ( 8.62-16.58) 91% in, 15% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-0) 13%
(18%) 5W: 8.78 ( 6.33-13.88) 35% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-0) 18%
(19%) 4W: 6.44 ( 3.99-11.60) 4% in, proj. out (#9-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-0) 24%
(16%) 3W: 4.41 ( 2.22- 9.46) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(11%) 2W: 2.89 ( 1.72- 6.36) out, proj. out
( 3%) 1W: 1.68 ( 0.86- 3.05) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) WWWWWWW: 17.83 (16.05-20.49) 100% in, 99% home, 29% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 29%
( 3%) WWLWWWW: 14.99 (13.46-16.72) 99% in, 82% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#3-out), Madison-Plains (3-0) 16%
( 6%) LWWWWWW: 13.81 (11.98-17.33) 99% in, 63% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Versailles (2-1) 14%
( 5%) LWLWWWW: 11.02 ( 9.79-13.62) 87% in, 6% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-0) 13%
( 3%) LWLLWWW: 8.73 ( 7.40-11.28) 35% in, proj. out (#9-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-0) 19%
( 4%) LLLLLWW: 4.26 ( 3.03- 6.45) out
( 7%) LLLLLWL: 2.89 ( 1.72- 4.93) out
( 3%) LLLLLLL: 1.68 ( 0.86- 3.05) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 84.8, #464, D6 #63), 39% (bubble if 5-5), 17% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 83.7, #471, D6 #62), 47% (bubble if 5-5), 20% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 81.8, #484, D6 #63), 48% (bubble if 5-5), 22% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 77.3, #510, D6 #63), 43% (bubble if 5-5), 19% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Last season 78.5