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Rankings
#52 of 107 in Division 6
#8 of 27 in Region 24
Strength of schedule #75 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #30 in D6 (+40 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 34-13 A #598 Minford (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 21 (83%), perf. rating 94
08/29 L 41-21 H Boyd County KY (3-1) D3
09/05 W 34-8 A #676 Oak Hill (0-4) D5 R19, pick: W by 31 (96%), perf. rating 75
09/12 W 33-32 A #484 Fairland (1-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 7 (34%), perf. rating 85
09/19 A #589 South Point (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 17 (86%)
09/26 H #365 Purcell Marian (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 16 (15%)
10/03 H #436 Gallia Academy (2-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 5 (37%)
10/10 H #468 Portsmouth (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/17 A #631 Chesapeake (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/24 H #402 Dawson-Bryant (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 11 (23%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
9.27 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#8 seed in R24 playoffs
Playoff chances now
89% (bubble if 4-6), 53% home (maybe if 6-4), 16% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.23 ( 4.43-20.41) 95% in, 59% home, 19% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), bye 20%
Lose: 6.24 ( 2.71-16.73) 57% in, 15% home, 2% bye, proj. #12 (#2-out), Dayton Christian (3-1) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 9W: 17.28 (16.12-20.41) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(13%) 8W: 14.76 (12.89-17.49) 100% home, 75% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 75%
(23%) 7W: 11.94 ( 9.67-15.73) 100% in, 95% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#11), Anna (3-1) 14%
(27%) 6W: 9.27 ( 7.50-13.00) 99% in, 46% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Anna (3-1) 22%
(22%) 5W: 6.64 ( 5.23-11.19) 84% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Dayton Christian (3-1) 17%
( 9%) 4W: 5.34 ( 3.52- 9.17) 37% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Dayton Christian (3-1) 16%
( 2%) 3W: 4.08 ( 2.71- 7.06) 8% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) WWWWWW: 17.28 (16.12-20.41) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 7%) WLWWWW: 15.04 (14.21-17.49) 100% home, 85% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 85%
( 6%) WLLWWW: 11.99 (10.98-14.41) 100% in, 95% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Anna (3-1) 15%
(10%) WLWWWL: 11.69 (11.13-14.36) 100% in, 96% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Anna (3-1) 15%
( 6%) WLWLWL: 9.37 ( 8.41-13.00) 100% in, 46% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-#12), Anna (3-1) 21%
(12%) WLLWWL: 8.96 ( 8.36-11.64) 100% in, 43% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-#12), Anna (3-1) 23%
(16%) WLLLWL: 6.59 ( 5.63- 9.42) 81% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Dayton Christian (3-1) 16%
( 2%) LLLLLL: 4.08 ( 2.71- 7.06) 8% in, proj. out (#10-out), Dayton Christian (3-1) 23%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 82.6, #472, D6 #52), 89% (bubble if 4-6), 53% home (maybe if 6-4), 16% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 82.4, #488, D6 #55), 75% (bubble if 4-6), 50% home (maybe if 6-4), 18% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 80.5, #496, D6 #60), 56% (bubble if 5-5), 27% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 79.0, #521, D6 #62), 73% (bubble if 4-6), 40% home (maybe if 6-4), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 76.4, #531, D6 #65), 56% (bubble if 4-6), 31% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 5-5
Last season 75.9