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Rankings
#71 of 106 in Division 5
#18 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #73 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #104 in D5 (-820 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 30-27 A #477 Portsmouth West (1-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 19 (81%), perf. rating 80
08/29 W 40-15 H Point Pleasant WV (0-2) D4
09/05 L 39-6 H #324 Fairfield Union (1-3) D4 R15, pick: W by 7 (65%), perf. rating 55
09/12 L 33-32 H #472 Rock Hill (3-1) D6 R24, pick: W by 7 (66%), perf. rating 79
09/19 H #436 Gallia Academy (2-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 6 (35%)
09/26 A #589 South Point (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/03 H #468 Portsmouth (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/10 A #14 Ironton (4-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 49 (1%)
10/17 A #402 Dawson-Bryant (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 16 (15%)
10/24 A #631 Chesapeake (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 23 (93%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
6.39 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
6% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.63 ( 2.48-17.79) 16% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 19%
Lose: 4.62 ( 0.50-15.71) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 7%) 6W: 11.83 ( 9.84-15.71) 69% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 18%
(21%) 5W: 8.98 ( 7.05-12.86) 5% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(31%) 4W: 6.39 ( 4.30-10.93) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(26%) 3W: 4.11 ( 2.17- 9.36) out, proj. out
(11%) 2W: 2.43 ( 0.90- 7.17) out, proj. out
( 2%) 1W: 1.52 ( 0.50- 3.05) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 7%) WWWLWW: 11.83 ( 9.84-14.54) 68% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 19%
( 5%) LWWLWW: 8.98 ( 7.05-11.43) 5% in, proj. out (#11-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 31%
(13%) WWWLLW: 8.78 ( 7.20-11.48) 3% in, proj. out (#9-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 27%
( 7%) WWLLLW: 6.44 ( 4.91- 9.61) out
(17%) LWWLLW: 6.34 ( 4.86- 8.79) out
(19%) LWLLLW: 3.65 ( 2.57- 6.55) out
( 7%) LLLLLW: 1.92 ( 0.90- 4.32) out
( 2%) LLLLLL: 1.52 ( 0.50- 3.05) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 81.2, #484, D5 #71), 6% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 87.6, #442, D5 #63), 31% (bubble if 6-4), 8% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 105.8, #322, D5 #35), 66% (bubble if 6-4), 26% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 1 (0-1, 108.2, #302, D5 #31), 59% (bubble if 6-4), 21% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye, proj. out at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 116.2, #235, D5 #23), 81% (bubble if 5-5), 58% home (maybe if 7-3), 27% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 7-3
Last season 117.4