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Rankings
#47 of 106 in Division 5
#7 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #89 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #63 in D5 (-244 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 19-13 H #251 Portsmouth West (6-1) D6 R24, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 104
08/28 W 33-7 A Point Pleasant WV (3-3) D3
09/04 W 35-6 N Tri-Cities Christian TN (2-4) D7
09/11 W 39-17 A #539 Rock Hill (1-6) D6 R24, pick: W by 12 (76%), perf. rating 108
09/18 W 26-8 A #545 Gallia Academy (2-5) D3 R11, pick: W by 32 (98%), perf. rating 101
09/25 L 30-24 H #418 South Point (6-1) D5 R19, pick: W by 14 (81%), perf. rating 81
10/02 W 45-33 A #485 Portsmouth (2-5) D5 R19, pick: W by 8 (70%), perf. rating 103
10/09 A #475 Logan Elm (2-5) D5 R19, pick: W by 11 (77%)
10/16 H #558 Dawson-Bryant (2-5) D5 R19, pick: W by 26 (96%)
10/23 H #601 Chesapeake (2-5) D5 R19, pick: W by 32 (98%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
14.31 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#7 seed in R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in, 97% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.26 ( 9.74-17.22) 100% in, 99% home, 1% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#11), Ridgewood (4-3) 31%
Lose: 12.84 ( 9.14-15.19) 100% in, 91% home, proj. #7 (#5-#12), Piketon (4-3) 32%
Based on eventual number of wins
(74%) 8W: 14.31 (12.63-17.22) 100% in, 99% home, 1% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#9), Ridgewood (4-3) 31%
(24%) 7W: 12.89 (10.85-15.19) 100% in, 95% home, proj. #7 (#5-#10), Piketon (4-3) 31%
( 2%) 6W: 11.37 ( 9.48-14.08) 100% in, 53% home, proj. #8 (#6-#12), Piketon (4-3) 39%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(74%) WWW: 14.31 (12.63-17.22) 100% in, 99% home, 1% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#9), Ridgewood (4-3) 31%
( 1%) WWL: 12.92 (10.96-14.48) 100% in, 95% home, proj. #7 (#5-#10), Ridgewood (4-3) 26%
(21%) LWW: 12.89 (11.31-15.19) 100% in, 95% home, proj. #7 (#5-#10), Piketon (4-3) 31%
( 2%) WLW: 12.77 (10.85-14.63) 100% in, 93% home, proj. #7 (#5-#10), Piketon (4-3) 33%
( 2%) LLW: 11.37 ( 9.48-13.01) 100% in, 52% home, proj. #8 (#6-#12), Piketon (4-3) 38%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (5-2, 97.3, #382, D5 #47), appears locked in, 97% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 6 (4-2, 96.6, #385, D5 #48), likely in, 72% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 5 (4-1, 98.7, #372, D5 #45), 98% (bubble if 5-5), 87% home (maybe if 7-3), 29% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 4 (3-1, 102.5, #342, D5 #39), likely in, 93% home (maybe if 7-3), 34% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 9-1
Week 3 (2-1, 98.9, #373, D5 #45), 92% (bubble if 5-5), 79% home (maybe if 6-4), 36% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 99.1, #369, D5 #48), 85% (bubble if 5-5), 63% home (maybe if 7-3), 15% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 1 (0-1, 88.8, #431, D5 #60), 35% (bubble if 5-5), 13% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 92.0, #428, D5 #59), 56% (bubble if 5-5), 31% home (maybe if 7-3), 9% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 6-4
Last season 84.2