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Rankings
#51 of 106 in Division 5
#13 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #87 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #47 in D5 (-83 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 20-8 A Russell KY (4-0) D4
08/29 W 37-7 H #611 Adena (1-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 35 (96%), perf. rating 101
09/05 L 34-6 A #248 Nelsonville-York (4-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 20 (13%), perf. rating 76
09/12 W 60-14 H #631 Chesapeake (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 31 (97%), perf. rating 115
09/19 A #468 Portsmouth (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 10 (73%)
09/26 A #436 Gallia Academy (2-2) D4 R15, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/03 H #427 KIPP Columbus (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/10 H #589 South Point (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/17 H #484 Fairland (1-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/24 A #472 Rock Hill (3-1) D6 R24, pick: W by 11 (77%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
12.34 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#12 seed in R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
54% (bubble if 6-4), 13% home (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.64 ( 3.04-17.17) 69% in, 17% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Zane Trace (3-1) 18%
Lose: 7.92 ( 1.21-14.78) 13% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 23%
Based on eventual number of wins
(27%) 8W: 15.13 (14.16-17.17) 99% in, 43% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Zane Trace (3-1) 23%
(27%) 7W: 12.34 (10.75-16.06) 80% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 16%
(20%) 6W: 10.51 ( 7.86-13.47) 29% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 25%
(14%) 5W: 8.17 ( 5.21-11.59) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 8%) 4W: 5.88 ( 3.08- 9.25) out, proj. out
( 4%) 3W: 3.70 ( 1.71- 5.64) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(27%) WWWWWW: 15.13 (14.16-17.17) 99% in, 43% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Zane Trace (3-1) 23%
( 6%) WWLWWW: 14.33 (13.66-16.06) 99% in, 18% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Zane Trace (3-1) 19%
( 3%) WWWWLW: 12.54 (11.47-14.22) 78% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 15%
( 4%) LWWWWW: 12.28 (11.06-14.78) 63% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 22%
( 9%) WLWWWW: 11.93 (10.96-14.43) 79% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 17%
( 5%) WWWWWL: 11.67 (10.75-13.46) 70% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 24%
( 5%) WLLWWW: 11.10 (10.46-13.32) 52% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 20%
( 3%) LLLWLL: 3.57 ( 2.88- 5.13) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 95.3, #402, D5 #51), 54% (bubble if 6-4), 13% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 7-3
Week 3 (1-2, 89.8, #427, D5 #61), 30% (bubble if 7-3), 8% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 94.7, #407, D5 #54), 26% (bubble if 7-3), 7% home (likely needs 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 96.2, #389, D5 #48), 35% (bubble if 7-3), 14% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye, proj. out at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 96.2, #397, D5 #50), 49% (bubble if 6-4), 26% home (maybe if 8-2), 8% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 100.7