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Rankings
#74 of 103 in Division 7
#23 of 26 in Region 26
Strength of schedule #58 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #54 in D7 (-180 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 12-7 H #653 Hicksville (0-3) D7 R26, pick: L by 21 (17%), perf. rating 45
08/28 W 36-28 A #621 Edgerton (0-3) D7 R26, pick: L by 26 (10%), perf. rating 67
09/04 L 48-12 A #544 Antwerp (1-2) D7 R26, pick: L by 14 (22%), perf. rating 21
09/11 H Whiteford MI (0-2) D7
09/19 H Sand Creek MI (1-1) D7
09/25 A Erie-Mason MI (1-1) D6
10/02 H Petersburg-Summerfd. MI (2-0) D7
10/10 A #512 Montpelier (3-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 30 (2%)
10/17 H #388 Edon (3-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 37 (1%)
10/23 A #629 North Central (0-3) D7 R26, pick: L by 8 (30%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
6.07 Harbin points (divisor 96)
#12 seed in R26 playoffs
Playoff chances now
45% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.76 ( 1.41-15.60) 49% in, 4% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Montpelier (3-0) 17%
Lose: 4.89 ( 1.06-12.55) 34% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Montpelier (3-0) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 7W: 9.32 ( 8.07-13.18) 99% in, 40% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Pandora-Gilboa (1-2) 20%
(18%) 6W: 7.83 ( 5.54-11.73) 94% in, 8% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Montpelier (3-0) 18%
(33%) 5W: 6.07 ( 3.57- 9.56) 58% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Montpelier (3-0) 18%
(30%) 4W: 4.32 ( 2.13- 8.01) 14% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Edon (3-0) 19%
(13%) 3W: 2.71 ( 1.41- 5.58) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 2%) 2W: 1.06 ( 1.06- 3.41) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWLLW: 9.22 ( 8.07-11.51) 99% in, 26% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Pandora-Gilboa (1-2) 21%
( 7%) WWWWLLL: 8.45 ( 6.58-10.90) 98% in, 12% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Montpelier (3-0) 17%
( 5%) WLWWLLL: 6.70 ( 4.40- 8.73) 76% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Montpelier (3-0) 17%
( 5%) WWLWLLL: 6.49 ( 4.67- 8.68) 68% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Montpelier (3-0) 20%
( 9%) WWWLLLL: 5.97 ( 4.14- 8.41) 55% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Edon (3-0) 18%
( 6%) WLWLLLL: 4.21 ( 2.60- 6.55) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out), Edon (3-0) 24%
( 7%) WWLLLLL: 3.95 ( 2.49- 5.83) 5% in, proj. out (#11-out), Edon (3-0) 21%
( 2%) LLLLLLL: 1.06 ( 1.06- 3.41) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 43.9, #643, D7 #74), 45% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 2 (2-0, 51.8, #630, D7 #65), 72% (bubble if 5-5), 14% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 43.6, #651, D7 #77), 43% (bubble if 5-5), 7% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 33.8, #675, D7 #88), 17% (bubble if 4-6), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 34.0