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Rankings
#49 of 107 in Division 7
#17 of 29 in Region 26
Strength of schedule #43 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #52 in D7 (-87 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 24-16 A #594 Antwerp (1-3) D7 R26, pick: L by 19 (19%), perf. rating 76
08/29 L 48-6 H #286 Woodmore (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 8 (34%), perf. rating 46
09/05 L 29-28 H #420 Edgerton (4-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 32 (4%), perf. rating 89
09/13 W 48-6 A Erie-Mason MI (0-3) D6
09/19 A Petersburg-Summerfd. MI (2-1) D7
09/26 H Whiteford MI (2-1) D7
10/03 H #520 Ottawa Hills (2-2) D6 R22, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/10 A #691 Hilltop (0-4) D7 R26, pick: W by 33 (99%)
10/17 H #630 North Central (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/24 A #515 Edon (3-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 11 (23%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
6.95 Harbin points (divisor 97)
out of R26 playoffs
Playoff chances now
29% (bubble if 6-4), 9% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.00 ( 3.68-15.53) 44% in, 17% home, 2% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Edon (3-1) 10%
Lose: 6.75 ( 1.52-13.74) 17% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Mohawk (3-1) 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 8W: 14.24 (13.78-15.53) 100% in, 99% home, 32% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 32%
(12%) 7W: 11.73 (10.44-13.99) 98% in, 50% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Edgerton (4-0) 10%
(28%) 6W: 9.31 ( 7.56-12.00) 48% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Mohawk (3-1) 12%
(34%) 5W: 6.95 ( 5.20-10.61) 2% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(19%) 4W: 4.90 ( 3.41- 8.67) out, proj. out
( 4%) 3W: 3.11 ( 1.87- 6.15) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWWW: 14.24 (13.78-15.53) 100% in, 99% home, 32% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 32%
( 5%) LWWWWL: 9.00 ( 7.56-11.01) 34% in, proj. out (#9-out), Edon (3-1) 18%
( 7%) WWLWWL: 8.90 ( 7.72-10.91) 33% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Edon (3-1) 15%
( 6%) LLWWWL: 6.90 ( 5.41- 9.01) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Lima Central Catholic (4-0) 43%
(10%) LWLWWL: 6.75 ( 5.20- 8.76) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Gibsonburg (3-1) 40%
( 9%) WLLWWL: 6.75 ( 5.56- 9.12) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Edon (3-1) 25%
(11%) LLLWWL: 4.59 ( 3.41- 6.97) out
( 4%) LLLWLL: 3.11 ( 1.87- 4.76) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 69.0, #565, D7 #49), 29% (bubble if 6-4), 9% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (1-2, 66.3, #581, D7 #55), 20% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 54.4, #621, D7 #66), 16% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 68.2, #572, D7 #52), 54% (bubble if 6-4), 18% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 57.9, #614, D7 #61), 19% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 54.8