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Rankings
#54 of 104 in Division 7
#16 of 26 in Region 26
Strength of schedule #28 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #72 in D7 (-440 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 L 21-14 A #548 Montpelier (2-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 63
08/28 L 35-12 H #385 Edon (2-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 30 (7%), perf. rating 60
09/04 H #630 Hilltop (2-0) D7 R26, pick: W by 14 (78%)
09/11 H #293 Paulding (2-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 34 (2%)
09/18 A #611 Edgerton (0-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 5 (62%)
09/25 H #649 Hicksville (0-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 22 (92%)
10/02 A #386 Tinora (0-2) D6 R22, pick: L by 29 (3%)
10/09 H #226 Fairview (Sherwood) (1-1) D6 R22, pick: L by 38 (1%)
10/16 A #367 Wayne Trace (1-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/23 A #513 Ayersville (0-2) D7 R26, pick: L by 15 (16%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
1.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R26 playoffs
Playoff chances now
6% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 1.30 ( 0.46- 3.66) 7% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Montpelier (2-0) 17%
Lose: 0.38 ( 0.00- 2.42) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 5W: 2.30 ( 2.12- 2.74) 74% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Edon (2-0) 18%
(16%) 4W: 1.76 ( 1.58- 2.06) 10% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(35%) 3W: 1.30 ( 1.16- 1.63) out, proj. out
(28%) 2W: 0.88 ( 0.74- 1.18) out, proj. out
(12%) 1W: 0.35 ( 0.35- 0.72) out, proj. out
( 3%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(11%) WLWWLLLW: 1.73 ( 1.57- 1.91) 9% in, proj. out (#11-out), Mohawk (1-1) 20%
( 3%) WLLWLLLW: 1.33 ( 1.19- 1.51) out
(28%) WLWWLLLL: 1.30 ( 1.16- 1.45) out
(18%) WLLWLLLL: 0.88 ( 0.77- 1.02) out
( 5%) LLWWLLLL: 0.73 ( 0.73- 0.81) out
( 4%) WLLLLLLL: 0.53 ( 0.46- 0.64) out
( 7%) LLLWLLLL: 0.35 ( 0.35- 0.42) out
( 3%) LLLLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (0-2, 64.2, #589, D7 #54), 10% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 63.9, #591, D7 #56), 12% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 67.1, #571, D7 #50), 28% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 69.0