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Rankings
#84 of 103 in Division 7
#20 of 25 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #74 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #86 in D7 (-615 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 40-2 A #603 Triad (2-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 15 (75%), perf. rating 3
08/28 L 54-6 A #448 Elgin (3-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 38 (3%), perf. rating 27
09/04 L 42-19 A #436 North Baltimore (4-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 42 (1%), perf. rating 56
09/11 L 18-7 H #655 Hardin Northern (1-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 6 (64%), perf. rating 19
09/18 H #664 Ridgemont (1-3) D7 R28, pick: L by 2 (45%)
09/25 H #681 Cory-Rawson (0-4) D7 R26, pick: W by 5 (62%)
10/02 A #608 Upper Scioto Valley (3-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 26 (5%)
10/09 H #560 Arlington (0-4) D7 R26, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/16 A #596 Waynesfield-Goshen (2-2) D7 R28, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/23 H #589 Perry (Lima) (2-2) D6 R22, pick: L by 27 (4%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
0.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
4% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 1.40 ( 0.70- 8.95) 8% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Fort Loramie (3-1) 15%
Lose: 0.35 ( 0.00- 7.55) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 5W: 6.43 ( 4.95- 8.25) 100% in, 50% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Waynesfield-Goshen (2-2) 19%
( 2%) 4W: 5.00 ( 2.85- 7.55) 77% in, 7% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Fort Loramie (3-1) 17%
( 9%) 3W: 3.20 ( 1.75- 5.45) 17% in, proj. out (#9-out), New Bremen (2-2) 17%
(28%) 2W: 1.40 ( 0.70- 4.35) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(35%) 1W: 0.70 ( 0.35- 2.85) out, proj. out
(25%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWLLWW: 5.30 ( 4.25- 6.45) 90% in, 7% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Cincinnati Country Day (1-3) 21%
( 2%) WWLLLW: 3.20 ( 2.50- 4.30) 12% in, proj. out (#10-out), New Bremen (2-2) 24%
( 2%) WWWLLL: 3.20 ( 2.85- 5.00) 23% in, proj. out (#9-out), New Bremen (2-2) 21%
( 2%) WWLLWL: 3.15 ( 2.80- 4.60) 15% in, proj. out (#10-out), Minster (4-0) 19%
(22%) WWLLLL: 1.40 ( 1.40- 2.90) out
(11%) WLLLLL: 0.70 ( 0.70- 1.80) out
(22%) LWLLLL: 0.35 ( 0.35- 1.45) out
(25%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 29.8, #677, D7 #84), 4% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 3 (0-3, 35.2, #661, D7 #80), 15% (bubble if 4-6), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 28.5, #675, D7 #89), 8% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 33.9, #671, D7 #87), 12% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 58.0, #612, D7 #62), 44% (bubble if 5-5), 25% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 63.5