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Region 28 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#62 of 104 in Division 7
#17 of 26 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #77 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #96 in D7 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 A #660 Triad (0-0) D7 R28, pick: W by 15 (75%)
08/28 A #598 Elgin (0-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 6 (38%)
09/04 A #489 North Baltimore (0-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 24 (9%)
09/11 H #664 Hardin Northern (0-0) D7 R28, pick: W by 20 (88%)
09/18 H #554 Ridgemont (0-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 10 (27%)
09/25 H #682 Cory-Rawson (0-0) D7 R26, pick: W by 28 (96%)
10/02 A #570 Upper Scioto Valley (0-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 12 (22%)
10/09 H #390 Arlington (0-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 30 (2%)
10/16 A #607 Waynesfield-Goshen (0-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 4 (40%)
10/23 H #650 Perry (Lima) (0-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 14 (82%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
5.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
45% (bubble if 5-5), 25% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.80 ( 0.35-21.30) 53% in, 31% home, 10% bye, proj. #12 (#1-out), bye 18%
Lose: 2.95 ( 0.00-18.65) 19% in, 8% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#1-out), bye 8%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 10W: 17.90 (15.35-21.30) 100% home, 95% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 95%
( 5%) 9W: 15.15 (12.15-19.20) 100% in, 99% home, 68% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 68%
( 8%) 8W: 12.40 ( 9.15-17.05) 100% in, 96% home, 22% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#12), bye 22%
(12%) 7W: 9.90 ( 6.85-15.10) 99% in, 61% home, 3% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), New Bremen (0-0) 8%
(14%) 6W: 7.65 ( 5.00-13.10) 83% in, 17% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#3-out), New Bremen (0-0) 9%
(15%) 5W: 5.75 ( 3.55-10.75) 34% in, 2% home, proj. out (#5-out), New Bremen (0-0) 11%
(15%) 4W: 4.10 ( 1.80-10.60) 7% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Ansonia (0-0) 10%
(13%) 3W: 2.80 ( 1.40- 7.35) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 9%) 2W: 1.50 ( 0.70- 5.45) out, proj. out
( 5%) 1W: 0.70 ( 0.35- 3.30) out, proj. out
( 2%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
New Bremen (0-0) 7%
Minster (0-0) 6%
Ridgemont (0-0) 5%
Fort Recovery (0-0) 5%
Most likely second round opponents
Marion Local (0-0) 15%
Cincinnati Country Day (0-0) 13%
Ansonia (0-0) 12%
Lehman Catholic (0-0) 10%
New Bremen (0-0) 9%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 51.8, #632, D7 #71), 8% (bubble if 4-6), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 1-9
Last season 63.5