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Rankings
#69 of 103 in Division 7
#22 of 26 in Region 26
Strength of schedule #35 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #73 in D7 (-387 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 13-12 H #622 Swanton (1-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 49
08/28 L 46-0 A #355 Paulding (2-1) D6 R22, pick: L by 44 (1%), perf. rating 42
09/04 L 36-7 A #367 Cuyahoga Heights (2-1) D7 R25, pick: L by 39 (1%), perf. rating 58
09/11 H Sand Creek MI (1-1) D7
09/18 A Whiteford MI (0-2) D7
09/25 A Petersburg-Summerfd. MI (2-0) D7
10/02 H Erie-Mason MI (1-1) D6
10/09 A #388 Edon (3-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 36 (1%)
10/16 H #512 Montpelier (3-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/23 H #643 Hilltop (2-1) D7 R26, pick: W by 8 (70%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
3.30 Harbin points (divisor 96)
out of R26 playoffs
Playoff chances now
12% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.22 ( 0.71-14.90) 22% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Montpelier (3-0) 16%
Lose: 2.58 ( 0.00-13.45) 8% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Montpelier (3-0) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 5W: 9.35 ( 7.84-12.95) 100% in, 42% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Pandora-Gilboa (1-2) 16%
( 6%) 4W: 7.18 ( 5.20-11.50) 84% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Montpelier (3-0) 17%
(21%) 3W: 5.11 ( 3.03- 9.28) 26% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Edon (3-0) 19%
(36%) 2W: 3.30 ( 1.43- 6.32) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Mohawk (2-1) 18%
(28%) 1W: 1.81 ( 0.35- 3.79) out, proj. out
( 8%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWLWLWW: 7.65 ( 6.45- 9.57) 95% in, 6% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Wayne Trace (2-1) 16%
( 4%) LWLWLLW: 4.64 ( 3.39- 6.46) 9% in, proj. out (#9-out), Edon (3-0) 26%
( 6%) LLLWLLW: 3.88 ( 2.31- 5.44) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Mohawk (2-1) 40%
( 6%) WLLLLLW: 3.62 ( 2.16- 5.13) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Edon (3-0) 25%
(11%) LWLLLLW: 2.89 ( 1.79- 4.40) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Mohawk (2-1) 100%
(14%) LLLLLLW: 1.86 ( 1.08- 2.95) out
( 6%) LWLLLLL: 0.71 ( 0.35- 2.17) out
( 8%) LLLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (0-3, 49.8, #629, D7 #69), 12% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 47.7, #640, D7 #70), 14% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 48.9, #643, D7 #72), 15% (bubble if 4-6), 2% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 49.9, #640, D7 #74), 35% (bubble if 4-6), 8% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #12 at 4-6
Last season 54.3