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Rankings
#69 of 107 in Division 7
#22 of 29 in Region 26
Strength of schedule #34 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #55 in D7 (-158 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 57-0 A #286 Woodmore (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 21 (17%), perf. rating 50
08/29 L 60-0 H #282 Paulding (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 41 (2%), perf. rating 47
09/05 W 12-6 H #595 Perry (Lima) (2-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 3 (56%), perf. rating 68
09/12 L 39-18 A #520 Ottawa Hills (2-2) D6 R22, pick: L by 26 (6%), perf. rating 47
09/19 H Whiteford MI (2-1) D7
09/26 H Petersburg-Summerfd. MI (2-1) D7
10/03 A Erie-Mason MI (0-3) D6
10/10 H #515 Edon (3-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 21 (8%)
10/17 A #565 Montpelier (2-2) D7 R26, pick: L by 16 (15%)
10/23 A #691 Hilltop (0-4) D7 R26, pick: W by 26 (96%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
4.81 Harbin points (divisor 97)
out of R26 playoffs
Playoff chances now
6% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.81 ( 3.32-15.33) 13% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Mohawk (3-1) 12%
Lose: 4.81 ( 1.52-12.87) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Mohawk (3-1) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 6W: 11.12 ( 9.26-13.34) 93% in, 29% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Edgerton (4-0) 10%
(12%) 5W: 8.60 ( 6.33-11.85) 28% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Mohawk (3-1) 14%
(31%) 4W: 6.71 ( 4.49- 9.75) 2% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(37%) 3W: 4.81 ( 2.34- 8.57) out, proj. out
(17%) 2W: 3.38 ( 1.52- 6.27) out, proj. out
( 1%) 1W: 2.62 ( 1.53- 3.39) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWWLWW: 8.55 ( 7.06-10.15) 17% in, proj. out (#10-out), Edon (3-1) 13%
( 8%) LWWLLW: 6.40 ( 4.85- 8.30) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Arlington (4-0) 33%
( 8%) WLWLLW: 6.35 ( 4.49- 8.30) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Leipsic (4-0) 50%
( 7%) LWLLLW: 5.48 ( 4.04- 6.72) out
( 7%) WLLLLW: 5.17 ( 3.32- 7.03) out
(17%) LLWLLW: 4.24 ( 2.34- 5.84) out
(14%) LLLLLW: 3.02 ( 1.52- 4.51) out
( 1%) LLLLLL: 2.62 ( 1.53- 3.39) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 54.6, #630, D7 #69), 6% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 45.5, #650, D7 #76), 3% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 42.0, #657, D7 #79), 3% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 38.2, #672, D7 #85), 3% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 49.0, #648, D7 #77), 11% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 38.7