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Rankings
#60 of 104 in Division 7
#19 of 26 in Region 26
Strength of schedule #30 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #82 in D7 (-550 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 40-7 A #385 Edon (2-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 49
08/28 L 36-28 H #630 Hilltop (2-0) D7 R26, pick: W by 26 (90%), perf. rating 38
09/04 H #548 Montpelier (2-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 12 (25%)
09/11 A #386 Tinora (0-2) D6 R22, pick: L by 33 (2%)
09/18 H #589 Antwerp (0-2) D7 R26, pick: L by 5 (38%)
09/25 A #367 Wayne Trace (1-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 34 (2%)
10/02 H #513 Ayersville (0-2) D7 R26, pick: L by 18 (12%)
10/09 A #293 Paulding (2-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 39 (1%)
10/16 A #226 Fairview (Sherwood) (1-1) D6 R22, pick: L by 43 (1%)
10/23 H #649 Hicksville (0-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 16 (85%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
0.77 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R26 playoffs
Playoff chances now
3% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 1.36 ( 0.50- 3.06) 10% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Mohawk (1-1) 20%
Lose: 0.35 ( 0.00- 2.56) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 7%) 4W: 1.83 ( 1.66- 2.18) 21% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(16%) 3W: 1.31 ( 1.16- 1.68) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(28%) 2W: 0.77 ( 0.74- 1.14) out, proj. out
(34%) 1W: 0.35 ( 0.35- 0.73) out, proj. out
(13%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 4%) WLWLWLLW: 1.80 ( 1.66- 1.95) 18% in, proj. out (#11-out), Edon (2-0) 19%
( 7%) WLWLLLLW: 1.35 ( 1.20- 1.49) out
( 5%) LLWLWLLW: 1.23 ( 1.16- 1.30) out
( 6%) WLLLLLLW: 0.93 ( 0.85- 1.03) out
( 4%) LLLLWLLW: 0.81 ( 0.73- 0.93) out
(15%) LLWLLLLW: 0.77 ( 0.73- 0.88) out
(29%) LLLLLLLW: 0.35 ( 0.35- 0.42) out
(13%) LLLLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (0-2, 57.3, #611, D7 #60), 5% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 71.0, #554, D7 #45), 37% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 87.0, #455, D7 #27), 66% (bubble if 5-5), 41% home (maybe if 7-3), 13% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 6-4
Last season 88.5