Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions

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Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

#553 John Adams Rebels (3-1) 71.4

Updated Sat 13-Sep-2025 10:57 PM
Week 4 complete

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Rankings
#95 of 104 in Division 2
#24 of 27 in Region 5
Strength of schedule #102 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #59 in D2 (-240 WP+)

Schedule and results
08/22 L 28-22 H #638 Woodward (Toledo) (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 26 (88%), perf. rating 42
08/29 W 54-0 A #702 Beachwood (0-4) D5 R17, pick: W by 27 (91%), perf. rating 75
09/05 W 32-6 H #663 Richmond Heights (0-4) D6 R21, pick: W by 8 (67%), perf. rating 77
09/12 W 34-0 H #645 East Technical (1-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 98
09/19 A #18 Glenville (2-2) D4 R13, pick: L by 49 (1%)
09/26 A #686 Cardinal (0-3) D7 R25, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/03 H #669 John F Kennedy (Cle.) (0-4) D2 R5, pick: W by 30 (97%)
10/17 A #509 John Marshall (1-3) D1 R1, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/24 H #475 John Hay (2-2) D2 R5, pick: L by 9 (28%)

Regular season projections
5-4 record
7.38 Harbin points (divisor 88)
out of R5 playoffs

Playoff chances now
20% (bubble if 6-3), home game unlikely

Depending on the next game
Lose: 8.35 ( 3.54-16.90) 19% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Austintown-Fitch (3-1) 18%

Based on eventual number of wins
(13%) 7W: 13.20 (11.16-16.90) 84% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Austintown-Fitch (3-1) 16%
(32%) 6W: 10.27 ( 7.77-13.28) 27% in, proj. out (#9-out), Austintown-Fitch (3-1) 21%
(50%) 5W: 7.38 ( 5.22-11.41) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 4%) 4W: 6.21 ( 3.76- 8.42) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)

Under certain win/loss scenarios
(12%) LWWWW: 13.20 (11.16-16.90) 84% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Austintown-Fitch (3-1) 16%
(18%) LWWLW: 10.49 ( 7.77-13.05) 35% in, proj. out (#9-out), Austintown-Fitch (3-1) 21%
(14%) LWWWL: 10.04 ( 7.82-12.08) 16% in, proj. out (#10-out), Austintown-Fitch (3-1) 21%
(49%) LWWLL: 7.33 ( 5.22-10.22) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Austintown-Fitch (3-1) 25%
( 2%) LLWLL: 6.37 ( 4.89- 8.24) out
( 2%) LWLLL: 5.86 ( 3.76- 7.51) out

Most likely first-round opponents
Austintown-Fitch (3-1) 18%
Riverside (Painesville) (3-1) 16%
Nordonia (4-0) 15%
Twinsburg (4-0) 12%
Hudson (3-1) 11%

Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 71.4, #553, D2 #95), 20% (bubble if 6-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-4
Week 3 (2-1, 64.0, #594, D2 #98), 18% (bubble if 6-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-4
Week 2 (1-1, 59.5, #605, D2 #99), 14% (bubble if 7-2), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-4
Week 1 (0-1, 51.3, #635, D2 #101), 11% (bubble if 6-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-6
Week 0 (0-0, 64.1, #590, D2 #99), 28% (bubble if 6-3), 7% home (maybe if 8-1), proj. out at 5-4
Last season 72.7