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Rankings
#75 of 107 in Division 6
#19 of 27 in Region 21
Strength of schedule #64 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #62 in D6 (-152 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 44-8 A #678 Beachwood (2-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 23 (85%), perf. rating 85
08/28 L 28-8 A #402 Wickliffe (4-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 32 (5%), perf. rating 68
09/04 W 40-8 A #676 Brooklyn (0-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 27 (93%), perf. rating 80
09/11 W 26-14 A #549 Shaw (1-3) D5 R17, pick: L by 19 (13%), perf. rating 91
09/18 A #272 Brush (2-2) D2 R5, pick: L by 33 (2%)
09/25 H #333 Cleveland Central Cath. (3-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 26 (5%)
10/02 A #540 St John School (3-1) D7 R25, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/09 H #552 John Adams (1-2) D3 R9, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/16 A #468 Warrensville Heights (2-2) D4 R13, pick: L by 14 (18%)
10/23 H #425 Lutheran East (1-3) D4 R13, pick: L by 17 (13%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
6.24 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R21 playoffs
Playoff chances now
16% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.93 ( 5.23-21.42) 69% in, 25% home, 2% bye, proj. #11 (#3-out), United (3-1) 18%
Lose: 7.20 ( 3.02-19.66) 15% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), United (3-1) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 8W: 16.70 (13.75-19.66) 100% in, 76% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Columbiana (3-1) 16%
( 6%) 7W: 13.40 (10.52-16.84) 91% in, 12% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), United (3-1) 22%
(16%) 6W: 10.93 ( 8.36-15.88) 49% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), United (3-1) 16%
(26%) 5W: 8.66 ( 6.24-12.70) 8% in, proj. out (#10-out), Smithville (4-0) 16%
(30%) 4W: 6.24 ( 4.12- 9.68) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(22%) 3W: 3.52 ( 3.02- 6.60) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWWWWW: 16.58 (13.75-19.66) 100% in, 72% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), United (3-1) 17%
( 4%) LLWWWW: 13.10 (10.52-16.38) 89% in, 6% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), United (3-1) 22%
( 6%) LLWWWL: 10.93 ( 8.51-14.11) 49% in, proj. out (#9-out), United (3-1) 16%
( 5%) LLWWLW: 10.88 ( 8.36-15.88) 47% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), United (3-1) 16%
(14%) LLWWLL: 9.02 ( 6.24-12.30) 10% in, proj. out (#10-out), Smithville (4-0) 17%
(15%) LLLWLL: 6.39 ( 4.12- 9.68) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Columbia (4-0) 67%
(10%) LLWLLL: 6.14 ( 4.78- 9.07) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Columbia (4-0) 50%
(22%) LLLLLL: 3.52 ( 3.02- 6.60) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 72.8, #536, D6 #75), 16% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (2-1, 61.4, #593, D6 #84), 4% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 57.7, #609, D6 #90), 4% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (1-0, 51.9, #633, D6 #96), 5% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 44.6, #654, D6 #99), 7% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 51.9