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Rankings
#87 of 107 in Division 7
#20 of 27 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #106 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #38 in D7 (+10 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 12-0 H #705 Fayetteville (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 10 (68%), perf. rating 18
08/29 W 24-6 A #687 New Miami (2-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 5 (60%), perf. rating 56
09/05 W 46-12 A #708 Green (FF) (0-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 32 (96%), perf. rating 33
09/12 W 42-12 A #704 Sciotoville Community (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 8 (68%), perf. rating 56
09/20 H #707 Vanlue (0-4) D7 R26, pick: W by 37 (99%)
09/27 A #666 Crestline (2-2) D7 R27, pick: L by 5 (38%)
10/03 H #706 Federal Hocking (1-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 34 (99%)
10/17 A #707 Vanlue (0-4) D7 R26, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/24 H #652 Fisher Catholic (3-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 7 (32%)
Regular season projections
8-1 record
7.16 Harbin points (divisor 89)
#11 seed in R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
46% (bubble if 8-1), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.43 ( 3.57-13.56) 46% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 18%
Lose: 5.25 ( 3.57-11.48) 30% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(18%) 9W: 9.23 ( 7.15-13.56) 96% in, 5% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Ansonia (3-1) 17%
(36%) 8W: 7.16 ( 5.53-11.48) 63% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 19%
(43%) 7W: 5.19 ( 4.35- 9.13) 12% in, proj. out (#9-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 18%
( 3%) 6W: 4.81 ( 3.57- 8.01) 7% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(18%) WWWWW: 9.23 ( 7.15-13.56) 96% in, 5% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Ansonia (3-1) 17%
(17%) WLWWW: 7.21 ( 5.98-10.81) 68% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 18%
(18%) WWWWL: 6.82 ( 5.53-10.81) 59% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 20%
(42%) WLWWL: 5.14 ( 4.35- 9.13) 11% in, proj. out (#9-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 19%
( 1%) WLLWL: 4.02 ( 3.57- 8.01) 3% in, proj. out (#12-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 33%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 36.4, #672, D7 #87), 46% (bubble if 8-1), home game unlikely, proj. #11 at 8-1
Week 3 (3-0, 30.2, #684, D7 #94), 36% (bubble if 8-1), home game unlikely, proj. out at 7-2
Week 2 (2-0, 27.8, #686, D7 #94), 35% (bubble if 8-1), 2% home, proj. out at 7-2
Week 1 (1-0, 19.5, #696, D7 #98), 21% (bubble if 8-1), 2% home, proj. out at 6-3
Week 0 (0-0, 17.0, #702, D7 #102), 21% (bubble if 7-2), 4% home (maybe if 9-0), proj. out at 5-4
Last season 22.7