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Region 27 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#67 of 103 in Division 7
#15 of 27 in Region 27
Strength of schedule #103 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #50 in D7 (-132 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 28-19 A #679 Belpre (4-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 30 (92%), perf. rating 46
08/28 W 28-22 H #675 Tuscarawas Cent. Cath. (3-4) D7 R27, pick: W by 26 (90%), perf. rating 39
09/04 L 7-0 A #644 Notre Dame (3-3) D7 R27, pick: L by 5 (39%), perf. rating 35
09/11 W 32-21 H #685 Fairfield Christian (2-5) D7 R27, pick: W by 24 (92%), perf. rating 39
09/18 W 45-13 A #691 Bishop Rosecrans (0-7) D7 R27, pick: W by 19 (88%), perf. rating 62
09/26 W 41-28 H #683 Miller (1-6) D7 R27, pick: W by 25 (94%), perf. rating 44
10/02 W 34-8 A #689 Millersport (2-5) D7 R27, pick: W by 23 (93%), perf. rating 59
10/09 A #580 Berne Union (4-3) D6 R23, pick: L by 20 (9%)
10/17 H #573 Grove City Christian (3-4) D5 R19, pick: L by 18 (12%)
10/23 H #690 Manchester (3-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 28 (97%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
10.21 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#8 seed in R27 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 48% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.00 (10.77-15.70) 100% in, 99% home, 8% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#9), Eastern (Beaver) (4-3) 25%
Lose: 10.21 ( 8.02-13.77) 99% in, 43% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Eastern (Beaver) (4-3) 53%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 9W: 14.88 (14.07-15.70) 100% home, 33% bye, proj. #5 (#4-#7), bye 33%
(18%) 8W: 12.49 (11.32-14.23) 100% in, 98% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#10), Eastern (Beaver) (4-3) 39%
(76%) 7W: 10.21 ( 9.44-11.53) 100% in, 37% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Eastern (Beaver) (4-3) 56%
( 3%) 6W: 8.02 ( 8.02- 9.19) 97% in, 1% home, proj. #10 (#8-out), Conotton Valley (5-2) 30%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWW: 14.88 (14.07-15.70) 100% home, 33% bye, proj. #5 (#4-#7), bye 33%
( 7%) WLW: 12.95 (12.19-14.23) 100% in, 99% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#9), Eastern (Beaver) (4-3) 31%
(11%) LWW: 12.13 (11.32-13.77) 100% in, 97% home, proj. #8 (#5-#10), Eastern (Beaver) (4-3) 43%
(76%) LLW: 10.21 ( 9.44-11.53) 100% in, 37% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Eastern (Beaver) (4-3) 56%
( 3%) LLL: 8.02 ( 8.02- 9.19) 97% in, 1% home, proj. #10 (#8-out), Conotton Valley (5-2) 30%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (6-1, 46.2, #637, D7 #67), likely in, 48% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 6 (5-1, 44.9, #636, D7 #68), likely in, 42% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 5 (4-1, 46.6, #640, D7 #71), likely in, 47% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 4 (3-1, 43.5, #645, D7 #74), 97% (bubble if 4-6), 48% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 44.4, #642, D7 #73), 88% (bubble if 5-5), 41% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 45.8, #643, D7 #72), 78% (bubble if 6-4), 46% home (maybe if 8-2), 8% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 47.5, #645, D7 #73), 72% (bubble if 6-4), 46% home (maybe if 8-2), 11% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 54.5, #623, D7 #66), 69% (bubble if 5-5), 46% home (maybe if 7-3), 19% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 7-3
Last season 58.6