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Rankings
#78 of 107 in Division 7
#20 of 25 in Region 27
Strength of schedule #101 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #64 in D7 (-212 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 47-12 H #697 Belpre (1-3) D6 R23, pick: W by 25 (87%), perf. rating 67
08/29 W 35-8 A #699 Tuscarawas Cent. Cath. (1-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 24 (89%), perf. rating 59
09/06 L 34-6 H #590 Notre Dame (4-0) D7 R28, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 20
09/12 W 20-13 A #647 Fairfield Christian (2-2) D7 R27, pick: L by 19 (13%), perf. rating 61
09/19 H #650 Bishop Rosecrans (2-2) D7 R27, pick: L by 1 (48%)
09/26 A #587 Miller (3-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 21 (9%)
10/04 H #693 Millersport (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/10 H #628 Berne Union (3-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 8 (30%)
10/17 A #491 Grove City Christian (3-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 30 (2%)
10/24 A #672 Manchester (4-0) D7 R28, pick: W by 7 (68%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
8.08 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#11 seed in R27 playoffs
Playoff chances now
67% (bubble if 5-5), 33% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.47 ( 4.66-19.63) 89% in, 55% home, 14% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), bye 16%
Lose: 7.72 ( 3.09-17.03) 47% in, 13% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#1-out), Trimble (3-1) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 8W: 15.45 (14.58-17.39) 100% home, 86% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 86%
(17%) 7W: 12.86 (11.73-15.20) 100% in, 97% home, 15% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 15%
(27%) 6W: 10.36 ( 8.68-13.17) 99% in, 40% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 13%
(28%) 5W: 8.08 ( 6.44-10.68) 62% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Trimble (3-1) 16%
(19%) 4W: 5.28 ( 4.51- 8.69) 3% in, proj. out (#9-out)
( 4%) 3W: 4.16 ( 3.09- 6.05) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WLWWWW: 15.71 (14.79-17.39) 100% home, 75% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#6), bye 75%
(12%) WLWWLW: 12.86 (11.73-14.74) 100% in, 97% home, 11% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 11%
( 7%) LLWWLW: 10.87 ( 9.50-13.17) 99% in, 50% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Trimble (3-1) 12%
(14%) WLWLLW: 10.06 ( 8.94-12.30) 99% in, 34% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 14%
(16%) LLWLLW: 8.13 ( 7.00-10.68) 69% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Trimble (3-1) 16%
( 8%) WLWLLL: 7.16 ( 6.44- 9.04) 45% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Trimble (3-1) 18%
(16%) LLWLLL: 5.23 ( 4.51- 7.47) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out), Trimble (3-1) 23%
( 4%) LLLLLL: 4.16 ( 3.09- 6.05) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 45.2, #652, D7 #78), 67% (bubble if 5-5), 33% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 39.5, #665, D7 #83), 33% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (2-0, 52.1, #635, D7 #72), 68% (bubble if 5-5), 46% home (maybe if 7-3), 20% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 44.7, #659, D7 #79), 43% (bubble if 6-4), 22% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 39.3, #670, D7 #85), 47% (bubble if 6-4), 25% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 44.3