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Rankings
#105 of 107 in Division 6
#26 of 27 in Region 24
Strength of schedule #107 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #98 in D6 (-657 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 36-0 H #696 Manchester (1-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 22 (16%), perf. rating 58
08/28 L 27-6 H #627 Notre Dame (2-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 10 (31%), perf. rating 18
09/04 L 28-22 A #641 Southeastern (3-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 27 (7%), perf. rating 40
09/11 A #691 New Miami (0-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 13 (78%)
09/18 A #697 Sciotoville Community (0-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 27 (95%)
09/25 H #603 Miami Valley Christian (2-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/09 H #694 East Clinton (0-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 21 (92%)
10/16 H #656 Clermont Northeastern (0-3) D5 R20, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/23 A #664 River Valley (Bidwell) (1-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 4 (40%)
Regular season projections
5-4 record
5.10 Harbin points (divisor 87)
out of R24 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 5-4 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.75 ( 1.58-10.71) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-0) 23%
Lose: 3.35 ( 0.79- 9.85) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 7W: 8.17 ( 6.73-10.64) 16% in, proj. out (#9-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-0) 20%
(19%) 6W: 6.23 ( 4.85-10.71) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(27%) 5W: 5.10 ( 3.83- 8.37) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(29%) 4W: 3.90 ( 2.87- 7.18) out, proj. out
(14%) 3W: 3.18 ( 2.08- 5.87) out, proj. out
( 5%) 2W: 2.44 ( 1.29- 4.16) out, proj. out
( 1%) 1W: 1.65 ( 0.79- 3.43) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 4%) WWWWWW: 8.17 ( 6.73-10.64) 16% in, proj. out (#9-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-0) 20%
(16%) WWLWWW: 6.17 ( 4.85- 9.33) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Portsmouth West (3-0) 44%
(13%) WWLWLW: 5.04 ( 3.83- 7.22) out
(11%) WWLWWL: 4.98 ( 3.89- 7.51) out
(21%) WWLWLL: 3.74 ( 2.87- 5.69) out
( 4%) WWLLLL: 3.24 ( 2.37- 4.61) out
( 8%) LWLWLL: 2.94 ( 2.08- 4.55) out
( 1%) LLLLLL: 1.65 ( 0.79- 3.43) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 30.4, #670, D6 #105), 1% (must have at least 5-4 for any chance), proj. out at 5-4
Week 2 (1-1, 24.5, #686, D6 #107), 2% (bubble if 9-1), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 30.0, #675, D6 #104), 7% (bubble if 9-1), home game unlikely, proj. out at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 4.1, #697, D6 #107), 2% (bubble if 8-2), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Last season 5.1