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Region 28 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#94 of 104 in Division 7
#24 of 26 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #79 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #94 in D7 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 A #676 Dixie (0-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 10 (32%)
08/28 H #575 Belmont (0-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 32 (5%)
09/04 H #692 Dayton Stivers (0-0) D5 R20, pick: W by 10 (71%)
09/11 H #697 Fayetteville (0-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 22 (90%)
09/18 A #580 Dayton Christian (0-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 33 (2%)
09/25 H #453 Cincinnati Country Day (0-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 41 (1%)
10/02 A #422 Purcell Marian (0-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 45 (1%)
10/10 A #444 St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (0-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 44 (1%)
10/16 H #680 Manchester (0-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 2 (45%)
10/23 A #644 Miami Valley Christian (0-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 23 (7%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
3.83 Harbin points (divisor 97)
out of R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
18% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.20 ( 0.40-24.15) 35% in, 13% home, 3% bye, proj. out (#1-out), New Bremen (0-0) 8%
Lose: 2.30 ( 0.00-18.01) 10% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Ridgemont (0-0) 9%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 8W: 14.64 ( 9.43-19.79) 100% in, 98% home, 58% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 58%
( 2%) 7W: 11.81 ( 7.22-18.99) 99% in, 80% home, 21% bye, proj. #6 (#2-out), bye 21%
( 5%) 6W: 9.46 ( 5.18-18.01) 92% in, 47% home, 3% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), New Bremen (0-0) 8%
( 9%) 5W: 7.31 ( 3.34-14.11) 68% in, 14% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#3-out), New Bremen (0-0) 10%
(15%) 4W: 5.47 ( 1.60-12.26) 29% in, 2% home, proj. out (#5-out), New Bremen (0-0) 9%
(21%) 3W: 3.83 ( 1.25- 9.09) 4% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Ansonia (0-0) 10%
(23%) 2W: 2.14 ( 0.75- 8.43) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(17%) 1W: 0.81 ( 0.35- 5.19) out, proj. out
( 8%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
New Bremen (0-0) 8%
Ridgemont (0-0) 7%
Ansonia (0-0) 7%
Lehman Catholic (0-0) 7%
Most likely second round opponents
Marion Local (0-0) 16%
Ansonia (0-0) 12%
Cincinnati Country Day (0-0) 11%
New Bremen (0-0) 10%
Lehman Catholic (0-0) 8%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 70.4, #554, D7 #45), 73% (bubble if 5-5), 53% home (maybe if 6-4), 22% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Last season 25.8