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Region 28 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#95 of 104 in Division 7
#24 of 26 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #53 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #86 in D7 (-637 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 28-0 A #647 Dixie (2-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 10 (32%), perf. rating 4
08/28 L 38-0 H #500 Belmont (2-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 40 (2%), perf. rating 21
09/03 L 52-0 H #433 Preble Shawnee (2-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 47 (1%), perf. rating 25
09/11 H #686 Fayetteville (1-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 4 (41%)
09/18 A #512 Dayton Christian (1-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 42 (1%)
09/25 H #540 Cincinnati Country Day (1-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 38 (1%)
10/02 A #419 Purcell Marian (1-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 48 (1%)
10/10 A #422 St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (2-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 48 (1%)
10/16 H #697 Manchester (0-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 20 (91%)
10/23 A #591 Miami Valley Christian (2-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 36 (1%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
0.43 Harbin points (divisor 97)
out of R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 0.95 ( 0.44- 2.74) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Lose: 0.42 ( 0.00- 1.92) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 3W: 1.54 ( 1.31- 1.92) 17% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(36%) 2W: 0.96 ( 0.79- 1.34) out, proj. out
(47%) 1W: 0.43 ( 0.35- 0.78) out, proj. out
(13%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(33%) WLLLLWL: 0.95 ( 0.79- 1.18) out
( 4%) WLLLLLL: 0.52 ( 0.44- 0.65) out
(43%) LLLLLWL: 0.43 ( 0.35- 0.56) out
(13%) LLLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (0-2, 15.8, #690, D7 #95), 15% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 15.4, #690, D7 #97), 9% (bubble if 4-6), 2% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 25.2, #685, D7 #94), 18% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 25.8