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Rankings
#94 of 107 in Division 7
#21 of 27 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #81 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #85 in D7 (-488 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/23 L 28-0 A #668 Gamble Montessori (2-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 18 (20%), perf. rating -2
08/29 L 24-6 H #672 Manchester (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 5 (40%), perf. rating 8
09/04 W 32-8 H #703 Dayton Stivers (0-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 21 (12%), perf. rating 44
09/12 W 31-0 A #705 Fayetteville (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 4 (59%), perf. rating 51
09/19 H #518 Dayton Christian (3-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 36 (1%)
09/26 A #510 Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 39 (1%)
10/03 H #365 Purcell Marian (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 46 (1%)
10/10 H #440 St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 41 (1%)
10/17 A #688 Lockland (0-4) D7 R28, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/24 H #661 Miami Valley Christian (1-3) D6 R24, pick: L by 12 (21%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
2.21 Harbin points (divisor 95)
out of R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Lose: 1.86 ( 0.75-11.57) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 5W: 6.93 ( 5.06- 9.85) 45% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(16%) 4W: 3.82 ( 3.08- 7.82) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(42%) 3W: 2.21 ( 1.47- 6.15) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(41%) 2W: 1.49 ( 0.75- 3.38) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(14%) LLLLWW: 3.82 ( 3.08- 5.45) out
( 9%) LLLLLW: 2.73 ( 1.99- 4.89) out
(32%) LLLLWL: 2.21 ( 1.47- 4.05) out
(41%) LLLLLL: 1.49 ( 0.75- 3.38) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 27.0, #687, D7 #94), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 17.1, #697, D7 #100), 1% (must have at least 2-8 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 7.3, #704, D7 #103), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 0-10
Week 1 (0-1, 12.2, #703, D7 #103), 3% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 0 (0-0, 18.7, #697, D7 #97), 9% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 25.5