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Region 21 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#74 of 108 in Division 6
#20 of 28 in Region 21
Strength of schedule #66 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #77 in D6 (-340 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 L 45-2 A #241 Liberty (6-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 35 (5%), perf. rating 56
08/28 W 14-7 H #647 Valley Christian School (1-6) D6 R21, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 50
09/04 W 42-0 H #620 Champion (2-5) D6 R21, pick: L by 4 (41%), perf. rating 114
09/11 L 54-16 H #339 McDonald (7-0) D7 R25, pick: L by 26 (6%), perf. rating 46
09/18 L 30-20 A #500 Lowellville (4-3) D7 R25, pick: L by 6 (35%), perf. rating 68
09/25 L 42-12 A #381 Springfield (New Midd.) (4-3) D7 R25, pick: L by 22 (8%), perf. rating 55
10/02 W 26-14 H #576 W. Reserve (Berlin Ctr) (2-5) D7 R25, pick: W by 4 (60%), perf. rating 81
10/09 A #254 Mineral Ridge (7-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 35 (1%)
10/16 A #662 Jackson-Milton (0-7) D7 R25, pick: W by 28 (97%)
10/23 H #672 Waterloo (1-6) D7 R25, pick: W by 32 (98%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
6.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R21 playoffs
Playoff chances now
unlikely to contend for playoffs
Depending on the next game
Lose: 5.70 ( 3.75- 7.30) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
(95%) 5W: 6.00 ( 5.30- 8.20) out, proj. out
( 4%) 4W: 5.00 ( 4.10- 6.20) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(95%) LWW: 6.00 ( 5.30- 7.30) out
( 3%) LLW: 5.35 ( 4.25- 6.20) out
( 1%) LWL: 4.80 ( 4.10- 5.95) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (3-4, 70.7, #550, D6 #74), unlikely to contend for playoffs, proj. out at 5-5
Week 6 (2-4, 68.7, #559, D6 #74), 1% (must have at least 6-4 for any chance), proj. out at 5-5
Week 5 (2-3, 69.9, #553, D6 #75), 1% (must have at least 6-4 for any chance), proj. out at 5-5
Week 4 (2-2, 71.6, #546, D6 #77), 2% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 74.9, #537, D6 #73), 9% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 59.0, #607, D6 #89), 4% (likely needs 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 55.8, #623, D6 #91), 4% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 59.3, #610, D6 #86), 16% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 60.0