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Region 21 playoff probabilities
Region 21 seeding probabilities
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Rankings
#74 of 108 in Division 6
#20 of 28 in Region 21
Strength of schedule #68 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #85 in D6 (-402 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 L 45-2 A #184 Liberty (6-0) D5 R17, pick: L by 35 (5%), perf. rating 65
08/28 W 14-7 H #644 Valley Christian School (1-5) D6 R21, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 51
09/04 W 42-0 H #624 Champion (2-4) D6 R21, pick: L by 4 (41%), perf. rating 113
09/11 L 54-16 H #335 McDonald (6-0) D7 R25, pick: L by 26 (6%), perf. rating 45
09/18 L 30-20 A #487 Lowellville (4-2) D7 R25, pick: L by 6 (35%), perf. rating 68
09/25 L 42-12 A #393 Springfield (New Midd.) (3-3) D7 R25, pick: L by 22 (8%), perf. rating 53
10/02 H #570 W. Reserve (Berlin Ctr) (2-4) D7 R25, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/09 A #276 Mineral Ridge (6-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 35 (1%)
10/16 A #660 Jackson-Milton (0-6) D7 R25, pick: W by 26 (96%)
10/23 H #672 Waterloo (1-5) D7 R25, pick: W by 31 (98%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
5.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R21 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 6-4 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.75 ( 3.75-10.55) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Lose: 4.05 ( 2.10- 8.90) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 6W: 9.45 ( 8.70-10.55) 5% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(56%) 5W: 5.75 ( 5.30- 9.00) out, proj. out
(39%) 4W: 4.35 ( 3.65- 6.90) out, proj. out
( 4%) 3W: 3.55 ( 2.45- 5.35) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWW: 9.45 ( 8.70-10.55) 5% in, proj. out (#12-out), Hillsdale (5-1) 57%
(55%) WLWW: 5.75 ( 5.30- 7.65) out
( 2%) WLLW: 5.30 ( 4.25- 6.90) out
(36%) LLWW: 4.05 ( 3.65- 5.70) out
( 3%) LLLW: 3.70 ( 2.95- 5.35) out
( 1%) LLWL: 3.15 ( 2.45- 4.10) out
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (2-4, 68.7, #559, D6 #74), 1% (must have at least 6-4 for any chance), proj. out at 5-5
Week 5 (2-3, 69.9, #553, D6 #75), 1% (must have at least 6-4 for any chance), proj. out at 5-5
Week 4 (2-2, 71.6, #546, D6 #77), 2% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 74.9, #537, D6 #73), 9% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 59.0, #607, D6 #89), 4% (likely needs 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 55.8, #623, D6 #91), 4% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 59.3, #610, D6 #86), 16% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 60.0