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Rankings
#88 of 106 in Division 5
#24 of 28 in Region 17
Strength of schedule #70 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #76 in D5 (-342 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 41-6 A #323 McDonald (4-0) D7 R25, pick: L by 31 (8%), perf. rating 56
08/29 W 50-0 H #686 Cardinal (0-3) D7 R25, pick: L by 4 (42%), perf. rating 89
09/05 W 36-20 H #605 Campbell Memorial (2-2) D6 R21, pick: W by 14 (78%), perf. rating 82
09/12 L 41-9 A #457 Brookfield (2-2) D6 R21, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 39
09/19 A #268 Garfield (3-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 38 (1%)
09/26 H #525 LaBrae (2-2) D6 R21, pick: L by 11 (24%)
10/03 A #562 Southeast (2-2) D5 R17, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/10 A #184 Crestview (Columbiana) (4-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 43 (1%)
10/17 H #313 Liberty (3-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 33 (1%)
10/24 H #692 Newton Falls (0-4) D6 R21, pick: W by 32 (98%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
2.92 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R17 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Lose: 3.62 ( 1.46-14.26) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(12%) 5W: 6.60 ( 5.23- 9.73) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(31%) 4W: 4.53 ( 3.32- 8.42) out, proj. out
(54%) 3W: 2.92 ( 1.86- 6.30) out, proj. out
( 2%) 2W: 2.52 ( 1.46- 3.98) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(10%) LWWLLW: 6.34 ( 5.23- 9.22) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Manchester (Akron) (4-0) 25%
(11%) LWLLLW: 4.78 ( 3.37- 6.75) out
(18%) LLWLLW: 4.38 ( 3.32- 7.31) out
(54%) LLLLLW: 2.92 ( 1.86- 5.04) out
( 2%) LLLLLL: 2.52 ( 1.46- 3.98) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 62.9, #591, D5 #88), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (2-1, 70.7, #555, D5 #84), 8% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 67.6, #577, D5 #88), 7% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 46.2, #653, D5 #103), 2% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 49.1, #646, D5 #99), 4% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Last season 47.9