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Rankings
#43 of 107 in Division 6
#11 of 27 in Region 21
Strength of schedule #68 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #43 in D6 (-85 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 29-8 H #419 Pymatuning Valley (3-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 19 (19%), perf. rating 122
08/29 L 27-9 H #347 United (3-1) D6 R21, pick: W by 14 (76%), perf. rating 75
09/05 W 37-24 H #566 Conneaut (1-3) D4 R13, pick: W by 21 (88%), perf. rating 86
09/12 W 27-0 H #606 Jackson-Milton (3-1) D7 R25, pick: W by 31 (97%), perf. rating 98
09/19 H #681 Waterloo (0-3) D7 R25, pick: W by 43 (99%)
09/26 A #581 Lowellville (1-3) D7 R25, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/03 A #605 Campbell Memorial (2-2) D6 R21, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/10 A #385 Springfield (New Midd.) (1-2) D6 R21, pick: L by 7 (32%)
10/17 A #517 W. Reserve (Berlin Ctr) (1-3) D7 R25, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/24 H #323 McDonald (4-0) D7 R25, pick: L by 11 (23%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
12.75 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#9 seed in R21 playoffs
Playoff chances now
90% (bubble if 6-4), 35% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.21 ( 6.50-20.49) 91% in, 35% home, 2% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Springfield (New Midd.) (1-2) 14%
Lose: 11.46 ( 6.30-19.12) 67% in, 14% home, proj. #11 (#6-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(12%) 9W: 18.76 (17.07-20.49) 100% in, 99% home, 12% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), Springfield (New Midd.) (1-2) 16%
(26%) 8W: 15.50 (13.35-19.12) 100% in, 72% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Rootstown (4-0) 17%
(39%) 7W: 12.75 (10.71-16.47) 98% in, 10% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Springfield (New Midd.) (1-2) 18%
(19%) 6W: 10.61 ( 8.32-14.59) 70% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), United (3-1) 23%
( 4%) 5W: 8.94 ( 7.56-12.31) 24% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(12%) WWWWWW: 18.76 (17.07-20.49) 100% in, 99% home, 12% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), Springfield (New Midd.) (1-2) 16%
(10%) WWWLWW: 16.26 (14.48-18.46) 100% in, 75% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Garaway (3-0) 16%
(15%) WWWWWL: 14.94 (13.35-16.93) 100% in, 67% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Rootstown (4-0) 18%
(32%) WWWLWL: 12.65 (10.96-15.45) 98% in, 7% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Springfield (New Midd.) (1-2) 20%
( 3%) WWWWLL: 12.65 (10.71-14.59) 99% in, 14% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Garaway (3-0) 16%
( 3%) WLWLWL: 10.97 ( 9.49-13.01) 80% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), United (3-1) 23%
(13%) WWWLLL: 10.46 ( 8.32-12.35) 66% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), United (3-1) 25%
( 1%) WWLLLL: 8.73 ( 7.56-10.47) 19% in, proj. out (#10-out), Dalton (3-1) 29%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 92.8, #416, D6 #43), 90% (bubble if 6-4), 35% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye, proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 95.0, #400, D6 #39), 87% (bubble if 6-4), 50% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye, proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 94.9, #404, D6 #40), 87% (bubble if 5-5), 53% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 102.3, #344, D6 #28), 93% (bubble if 5-5), 75% home (maybe if 7-3), 36% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 85.4, #484, D6 #53), 55% (bubble if 5-5), 33% home (maybe if 7-3), 12% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Last season 80.4