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Rankings
#24 of 108 in Division 6
#6 of 28 in Region 21
Strength of schedule #76 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #13 in D6 (+162 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 49-7 A #554 Pymatuning Valley (3-3) D6 R21, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 135
08/28 W 31-28 A #280 United (4-1) D6 R21, pick: W by 7 (64%), perf. rating 118
09/04 W 31-14 H #431 Crestwood (1-5) D5 R17, pick: W by 34 (97%), perf. rating 112
09/11 W 27-7 H #393 Springfield (New Midd.) (3-3) D7 R25, pick: W by 23 (91%), perf. rating 123
09/18 W 45-7 A #660 Jackson-Milton (0-6) D7 R25, pick: W by 49 (99%), perf. rating 96
09/25 W 53-14 A #672 Waterloo (1-5) D7 R25, pick: W by 49 (99%), perf. rating 92
10/02 H #487 Lowellville (4-2) D7 R25, pick: W by 28 (96%)
10/09 H #559 Campbell Memorial (2-4) D6 R21, pick: W by 35 (99%)
10/16 H #570 W. Reserve (Berlin Ctr) (2-4) D7 R25, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/23 A #335 McDonald (6-0) D7 R25, pick: W by 6 (65%)
Regular season projections
10-0 record
21.63 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#4 seed in R21 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 68% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 21.22 (14.31-22.99) 100% in, 99% home, 70% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 70%
Lose: 16.23 (11.84-20.32) 100% in, 90% home, 24% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#12), bye 24%
Based on eventual number of wins
(63%) 10W: 21.63 (19.96-22.99) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 97%
(33%) 9W: 18.00 (16.28-20.72) 100% home, 21% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), Grand Valley (4-2) 22%
( 4%) 8W: 15.78 (14.11-18.05) 100% in, 89% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Columbiana (4-2) 22%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(63%) WWWW: 21.63 (19.96-22.99) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 97%
( 2%) LWWW: 19.13 (17.44-20.32) 100% home, 53% bye, proj. #4 (#3-#7), bye 53%
(30%) WWWL: 17.95 (16.28-19.86) 100% home, 17% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), Grand Valley (4-2) 22%
( 2%) LWWL: 15.73 (14.11-16.99) 100% in, 86% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Columbiana (4-2) 23%
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (6-0, 112.2, #276, D6 #24), appears locked in and likely home, 68% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 10-0
Week 5 (5-0, 113.8, #264, D6 #22), appears locked in and likely home, 62% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 10-0
Week 4 (4-0, 119.4, #222, D6 #16), appears locked in and likely home, 79% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 3 (3-0, 114.7, #259, D6 #21), likely in, 97% home (maybe if 7-3), 51% bye (likely needs 10-0), proj. #5 at 10-0
Week 2 (2-0, 112.3, #279, D6 #24), likely in, 93% home (maybe if 7-3), 44% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 110.2, #284, D6 #26), 92% (bubble if 6-4), 76% home (maybe if 7-3), 44% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 92.0, #427, D6 #48), 68% (bubble if 5-5), 47% home (maybe if 7-3), 24% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Last season 96.6