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Rankings
#32 of 105 in Division 5
#8 of 27 in Region 17
Strength of schedule #74 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #29 in D5 (+35 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 W 45-2 H #607 Campbell Memorial (1-1) D6 R21, pick: W by 35 (95%), perf. rating 120
08/28 W 34-7 A #545 Niles McKinley (0-2) D4 R13, pick: W by 30 (93%), perf. rating 115
09/04 H #221 Boardman (0-2) D2 R5, pick: L by 8 (33%)
09/11 A #360 Crestview (Columbiana) (1-1) D5 R17, pick: W by 7 (66%)
09/18 A #333 Brookfield (2-0) D6 R21, pick: W by 4 (60%)
09/25 H #573 Newton Falls (2-0) D6 R21, pick: W by 34 (98%)
10/02 A #261 Garfield (2-0) D5 R17, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/09 A #492 LaBrae (2-0) D6 R21, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/16 H #581 Champion (2-0) D6 R21, pick: W by 35 (99%)
10/23 H #608 Southeast (0-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 39 (99%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
4.72 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#8 seed in R17 playoffs
Playoff chances now
85% (bubble if 6-4), 56% home (likely needs 8-2), 22% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.48 ( 2.82- 6.66) 99% in, 88% home, 49% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 49%
Lose: 4.04 ( 1.47- 5.79) 79% in, 41% home, 9% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), bye 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
(12%) 10W: 6.21 ( 5.94- 6.66) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 97%
(21%) 9W: 5.46 ( 5.15- 5.88) 100% home, 45% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 45%
(24%) 8W: 4.72 ( 4.42- 5.24) 99% in, 81% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-out), Canton Central Catholic (1-1) 10%
(21%) 7W: 4.00 ( 3.78- 4.46) 96% in, 18% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Martins Ferry (2-0) 13%
(16%) 6W: 3.32 ( 3.14- 3.70) 54% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Martins Ferry (2-0) 18%
( 5%) 5W: 2.72 ( 2.54- 3.12) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(12%) WWWWWWWW: 6.21 ( 5.93- 6.66) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 97%
(10%) LWWWWWWW: 5.49 ( 5.33- 5.79) 100% home, 57% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 57%
( 6%) WWWWLWWW: 5.41 ( 5.15- 5.72) 100% home, 20% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 20%
(10%) LWWWLWWW: 4.68 ( 4.51- 4.99) 99% in, 76% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Martins Ferry (2-0) 13%
( 9%) LWLWLWWW: 3.98 ( 3.79- 4.26) 98% in, 16% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Girard (2-0) 14%
( 5%) LLWWLWWW: 3.97 ( 3.81- 4.24) 91% in, 9% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Girard (2-0) 14%
(10%) LLLWLWWW: 3.31 ( 3.15- 3.58) 50% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Martins Ferry (2-0) 15%
( 3%) LLLWLLWW: 2.71 ( 2.60- 2.90) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out), Barnesville (2-0) 33%
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (2-0, 109.6, #294, D5 #32), 84% (bubble if 6-4), 58% home (maybe if 7-3), 20% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 107.1, #305, D5 #35), 77% (bubble if 6-4), 51% home (maybe if 8-2), 16% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 103.6, #332, D5 #41), 67% (bubble if 6-4), 35% home (maybe if 8-2), 8% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 7-3
Last season 110.0