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Rankings
#55 of 107 in Division 7
#12 of 26 in Region 25
Strength of schedule #28 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #74 in D7 (-372 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 40-28 A #575 Columbiana (1-3) D6 R21, pick: W by 20 (82%), perf. rating 86
08/29 L 34-6 H #374 Toronto (4-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 16 (21%), perf. rating 56
09/05 L 22-13 A #525 LaBrae (2-2) D6 R21, pick: L by 3 (43%), perf. rating 65
09/12 L 30-15 A #605 Campbell Memorial (2-2) D6 R21, pick: W by 22 (90%), perf. rating 39
09/19 A #517 W. Reserve (Berlin Ctr) (1-3) D7 R25, pick: L by 14 (19%)
09/26 H #416 Mineral Ridge (3-1) D6 R21, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/03 H #323 McDonald (4-0) D7 R25, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/10 H #606 Jackson-Milton (3-1) D7 R25, pick: W by 8 (70%)
10/17 A #681 Waterloo (0-3) D7 R25, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/24 H #385 Springfield (New Midd.) (1-2) D6 R21, pick: L by 27 (4%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
4.77 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#10 seed in R25 playoffs
Playoff chances now
55% (bubble if 3-7), 9% home (maybe if 4-6)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.71 ( 2.99-16.22) 91% in, 34% home, 2% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), St Paul (2-2) 16%
Lose: 4.37 ( 0.76-14.24) 47% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), East Palestine (4-0) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 5W: 9.50 ( 7.11-12.16) 100% in, 86% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), W. Reserve (Berlin Ctr) (1-3) 16%
(19%) 4W: 6.76 ( 4.46-10.79) 99% in, 24% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), St Paul (2-2) 17%
(47%) 3W: 4.77 ( 2.99- 8.09) 65% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), East Palestine (4-0) 20%
(27%) 2W: 2.59 ( 1.11- 5.55) 4% in, proj. out (#9-out)
( 2%) 1W: 2.24 ( 0.76- 2.95) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWLWWL: 9.55 ( 7.67-11.08) 100% in, 90% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), W. Reserve (Berlin Ctr) (1-3) 17%
( 3%) LWLWWL: 7.60 ( 5.73- 9.51) 99% in, 30% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), W. Reserve (Berlin Ctr) (1-3) 21%
( 3%) LLLWWW: 6.76 ( 4.46- 8.29) 96% in, 9% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), W. Reserve (Berlin Ctr) (1-3) 20%
(11%) WLLWWL: 6.65 ( 4.82- 8.29) 99% in, 22% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), St Paul (2-2) 18%
(42%) LLLWWL: 4.77 ( 3.29- 6.30) 66% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), East Palestine (4-0) 20%
( 3%) WLLLWL: 4.47 ( 2.99- 6.05) 49% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Monroeville (2-2) 22%
(25%) LLLLWL: 2.59 ( 1.11- 4.12) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Monroeville (2-2) 50%
( 2%) LLLLLL: 2.24 ( 0.76- 2.95) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 65.5, #581, D7 #55), 55% (bubble if 3-7), 9% home (maybe if 4-6), proj. #10 at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 78.4, #506, D7 #41), 86% (bubble if 3-7), 37% home (maybe if 5-5), 7% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 78.4, #520, D7 #43), 79% (bubble if 4-6), 36% home (maybe if 6-4), 11% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 87.3, #456, D7 #29), 78% (bubble if 4-6), 55% home (maybe if 5-5), 29% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 88.0, #466, D7 #33), 73% (bubble if 4-6), 55% home (maybe if 6-4), 31% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 6-4
Last season 80.8