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Rankings
#45 of 104 in Division 7
#14 of 25 in Region 25
Strength of schedule #48 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #59 in D7 (-260 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 48-14 A #650 Whetstone (0-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 21 (83%), perf. rating 95
08/28 L 36-20 H #494 East Canton (1-1) D7 R25, pick: W by 28 (92%), perf. rating 54
09/04 A #525 Columbiana (2-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 4 (41%)
09/11 A #674 Waterloo (1-1) D7 R25, pick: W by 34 (98%)
09/18 H #292 McDonald (2-0) D7 R25, pick: L by 29 (3%)
09/25 A #523 Lowellville (1-1) D7 R25, pick: L by 4 (40%)
10/02 A #607 Campbell Memorial (1-1) D6 R21, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/09 H #391 Springfield (New Midd.) (1-1) D7 R25, pick: L by 20 (9%)
10/16 A #279 Mineral Ridge (2-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/23 H #660 Jackson-Milton (0-2) D7 R25, pick: W by 32 (98%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
2.56 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#12 seed in R25 playoffs
Playoff chances now
55% (likely needs 5-5), 25% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 3.10 ( 1.32- 5.12) 90% in, 54% home, 12% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), bye 13%
Lose: 1.96 ( 0.66- 4.53) 30% in, 6% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Independence (1-1) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 8%) 7W: 3.72 ( 3.48- 4.03) 100% in, 99% home, 34% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 34%
(18%) 6W: 3.13 ( 2.90- 3.52) 100% in, 76% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-#11), Monroeville (0-2) 11%
(25%) 5W: 2.56 ( 2.35- 2.86) 93% in, 7% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Independence (1-1) 12%
(28%) 4W: 2.00 ( 1.84- 2.43) 14% in, proj. out (#10-out), St John School (1-1) 13%
(16%) 3W: 1.44 ( 1.38- 1.86) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 3%) 2W: 1.06 ( 0.95- 1.32) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 6%) WWLWWWLW: 3.69 ( 3.48- 3.95) 100% in, 99% home, 33% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#10), bye 33%
(11%) WWLWWLLW: 3.13 ( 2.90- 3.51) 100% in, 77% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#3-#11), Springfield (New Midd.) (1-1) 12%
( 9%) WWLLWLLW: 2.62 ( 2.46- 2.86) 93% in, 8% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Springfield (New Midd.) (1-1) 13%
( 9%) LWLWWLLW: 2.49 ( 2.39- 2.70) 90% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Independence (1-1) 13%
( 3%) WWLLLLLW: 2.10 ( 1.93- 2.35) 25% in, proj. out (#10-out), St John School (1-1) 20%
(19%) LWLLWLLW: 1.97 ( 1.90- 2.21) 10% in, proj. out (#10-out), Mogadore (1-1) 17%
( 3%) LWLWLLLW: 1.95 ( 1.84- 2.12) 14% in, proj. out (#10-out), Independence (1-1) 21%
(14%) LWLLLLLW: 1.45 ( 1.39- 1.75) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 73.6, #539, D7 #45), 52% (bubble if 5-5), 25% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 91.7, #421, D7 #21), 94% (bubble if 4-6), 79% home (maybe if 5-5), 41% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 84.2, #476, D7 #33), 77% (bubble if 4-6), 58% home (maybe if 6-4), 30% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Last season 79.7