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Rankings
#42 of 107 in Division 7
#9 of 26 in Region 25
Strength of schedule #44 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #66 in D7 (-220 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 34-0 A #184 Crestview (Columbiana) (4-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 77
08/28 W 33-18 H #601 Trinity (1-3) D5 R17, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 81
09/05 L 21-19 H #575 Columbiana (1-3) D6 R21, pick: W by 29 (95%), perf. rating 62
09/12 L 48-20 A #323 McDonald (4-0) D7 R25, pick: L by 23 (9%), perf. rating 66
09/19 H #581 Lowellville (1-3) D7 R25, pick: W by 14 (81%)
09/26 H #605 Campbell Memorial (2-2) D6 R21, pick: W by 20 (90%)
10/03 A #385 Springfield (New Midd.) (1-2) D6 R21, pick: L by 22 (8%)
10/09 H #681 Waterloo (0-3) D7 R25, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/17 H #416 Mineral Ridge (3-1) D6 R21, pick: L by 13 (20%)
10/24 A #606 Jackson-Milton (3-1) D7 R25, pick: W by 16 (85%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
7.51 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#9 seed in R25 playoffs
Playoff chances now
89% (bubble if 3-7), 47% home (maybe if 5-5)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.56 ( 2.73-14.54) 95% in, 55% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), St Paul (2-2) 15%
Lose: 5.68 ( 1.27-12.04) 65% in, 11% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), St Paul (2-2) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 7W: 12.73 (11.83-14.54) 100% in, 99% home, 29% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 29%
(19%) 6W: 10.36 ( 8.27-12.76) 100% in, 96% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Lisbon David Anderson (2-2) 11%
(44%) 5W: 7.51 ( 6.03-10.88) 100% in, 54% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), St Paul (2-2) 18%
(23%) 4W: 5.68 ( 4.10- 8.54) 89% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), St Paul (2-2) 19%
( 9%) 3W: 3.85 ( 2.73- 6.15) 32% in, proj. out (#9-out), East Palestine (4-0) 25%
( 2%) 2W: 2.38 ( 1.62- 3.96) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 4%) WWWWWW: 12.73 (11.83-14.54) 100% in, 99% home, 29% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 29%
(15%) WWLWWW: 10.41 ( 9.54-11.94) 100% in, 97% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Lisbon David Anderson (2-2) 12%
( 4%) WWWWLW: 9.49 ( 8.27-10.72) 100% in, 92% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), St Paul (2-2) 14%
(39%) WWLWLW: 7.51 ( 6.29- 9.20) 100% in, 53% home, proj. #8 (#6-#11), St Paul (2-2) 18%
( 8%) LWLWLW: 6.04 ( 5.17- 7.26) 96% in, 4% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), St Paul (2-2) 18%
( 4%) WLLWLW: 5.68 ( 4.87- 7.32) 97% in, 6% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), St Paul (2-2) 22%
( 9%) WWLWLL: 5.02 ( 4.10- 6.65) 78% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), St Paul (2-2) 19%
( 2%) LLLWLL: 2.38 ( 1.62- 3.25) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 77.4, #517, D7 #42), 89% (bubble if 3-7), 47% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. #9 at 5-5
Week 3 (1-2, 83.2, #480, D7 #39), 88% (likely needs 4-6), 48% home (maybe if 5-5), 8% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 92.6, #421, D7 #28), 98% (bubble if 3-7), 80% home (maybe if 5-5), 36% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 1 (0-1, 83.2, #490, D7 #34), 68% (bubble if 4-6), 44% home (maybe if 6-4), 19% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 99.6, #359, D7 #20), 87% (bubble if 4-6), 74% home (maybe if 6-4), 52% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 7-3
Last season 99.6