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Rankings
#37 of 107 in Division 6
#8 of 27 in Region 21
Strength of schedule #53 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #62 in D6 (-277 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 10-7 H #378 Lakeview (2-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 3 (55%), perf. rating 92
08/29 W 20-7 A #457 Brookfield (2-2) D6 R21, pick: W by 33 (95%), perf. rating 106
09/05 L 40-21 A #268 Garfield (3-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 4 (41%), perf. rating 87
09/19 A #605 Campbell Memorial (2-2) D6 R21, pick: W by 30 (97%)
09/26 H #606 Jackson-Milton (3-1) D7 R25, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/03 H #517 W. Reserve (Berlin Ctr) (1-3) D7 R25, pick: W by 22 (92%)
10/10 H #416 Mineral Ridge (3-1) D6 R21, pick: W by 7 (68%)
10/17 A #323 McDonald (4-0) D7 R25, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/24 A #581 Lowellville (1-3) D7 R25, pick: W by 27 (96%)
Regular season projections
6-3 record
14.39 Harbin points (divisor 90)
#8 seed in R21 playoffs
Playoff chances now
87% (likely needs 5-4), 42% home (maybe if 6-3), 2% bye
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.06 ( 3.56-20.06) 88% in, 43% home, 2% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Mineral Ridge (3-1) 15%
Lose: 9.33 ( 3.28-17.11) 47% in, 10% home, proj. out (#5-out), Wickliffe (4-0) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
(21%) 7W: 18.50 (16.50-20.06) 100% in, 99% home, 11% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Mineral Ridge (3-1) 17%
(42%) 6W: 14.39 (12.33-17.94) 100% in, 47% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Garaway (3-0) 18%
(26%) 5W: 10.94 ( 9.17-14.00) 82% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Dalton (3-1) 17%
( 8%) 4W: 8.50 ( 6.78-11.61) 18% in, proj. out (#10-out), United (3-1) 24%
( 1%) 3W: 6.44 ( 4.78- 9.11) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(21%) WWWWWW: 18.50 (16.50-20.06) 100% in, 99% home, 11% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Mineral Ridge (3-1) 17%
( 4%) WWWLWW: 14.67 (12.56-16.11) 100% in, 28% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Garaway (3-0) 16%
(37%) WWWWLW: 14.39 (12.33-15.89) 100% in, 47% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Garaway (3-0) 19%
( 2%) WWWWLL: 12.42 (11.11-13.72) 98% in, 15% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Garaway (3-0) 17%
( 3%) WWLWLW: 11.56 ( 9.44-13.44) 92% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Wickliffe (4-0) 16%
(19%) WWWLLW: 10.89 ( 9.17-12.33) 77% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Dalton (3-1) 19%
( 2%) WWWLLL: 8.94 ( 7.94-10.72) 21% in, proj. out (#10-out), United (3-1) 22%
( 4%) WWLLLW: 8.39 ( 7.06- 9.89) 10% in, proj. out (#10-out), Columbia (4-0) 24%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-2, 98.0, #385, D6 #37), 87% (likely needs 5-4), 42% home (maybe if 6-3), 2% bye, proj. #8 at 6-3
Week 3 (1-2, 94.6, #404, D6 #40), 66% (bubble if 5-4), 29% home (maybe if 6-3), proj. #11 at 5-4
Week 2 (1-1, 98.3, #380, D6 #36), 79% (bubble if 5-5), 51% home (maybe if 7-3), 10% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 1 (0-1, 107.5, #309, D6 #22), 88% (bubble if 5-5), 66% home (maybe if 7-3), 23% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 110.1, #273, D6 #16), 88% (bubble if 5-5), 74% home (maybe if 6-4), 45% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Last season 109.8