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Rankings
#3 of 79 in Division 1
#3 of 21 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #25 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #5 in D1 (+424 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 20-7 H #11 St Xavier (4-4) D1 R4, pick: L by 10 (32%), perf. rating 194
08/28 W 48-18 H #73 Lakota East (4-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 14 (76%), perf. rating 188
09/04 W 35-10 A #133 Mason (2-6) D1 R4, pick: W by 38 (98%), perf. rating 172
09/11 W 42-7 H #295 Hamilton (1-7) D1 R4, pick: W by 45 (99%), perf. rating 160
09/18 L 27-24 A #3 Princeton (8-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 182
09/25 W 38-7 H #86 Fairfield (4-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 33 (98%), perf. rating 185
10/02 W 35-0 A #43 Middletown (5-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 22 (92%), perf. rating 209
10/09 W 48-0 H #98 Colerain (4-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 34 (99%), perf. rating 199
10/16 A #283 Sycamore (1-7) D1 R4, pick: W by 46 (99%)
10/23 A #103 Oak Hills (4-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 34 (99%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
29.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#2 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and home, 97% bye
Depending on the next game
Win: 29.15 (25.30-30.80) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 97%
Based on eventual number of wins
(98%) 9W: 29.15 (28.50-30.80) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 97%
( 2%) 8W: 26.30 (25.30-28.50) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#5), bye 97%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(98%) WW: 29.15 (28.50-30.80) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 97%
( 1%) WL: 25.95 (25.30-26.60) 100% home, 95% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#5), bye 95%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (6-1, 182.4, #6, D1 #4), appears locked in and home, likely bye, proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 6 (5-1, 180.2, #11, D1 #6), appears locked in and likely home, 90% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 5 (4-1, 178.6, #11, D1 #6), appears locked in and likely home, 87% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 4 (4-0, 180.2, #8, D1 #3), appears locked in and likely home, 94% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 3 (3-0, 181.5, #5, D1 #2), likely in and likely home, 89% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 183.5, #4, D1 #1), likely in and likely home, 89% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 1 (1-0, 175.2, #12, D1 #4), 98% (bubble if 4-6), 91% home (maybe if 6-4), 73% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 165.2, #25, D1 #11), 87% (bubble if 4-6), 71% home (maybe if 6-4), 45% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 7-3
Last season 161.0