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Rankings
#11 of 80 in Division 1
#5 of 21 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #22 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #66 in D1 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 H #10 St Xavier (0-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 10 (32%)
08/28 H #46 Lakota East (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 14 (76%)
09/04 A #83 Mason (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 20 (87%)
09/11 H #73 Hamilton (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 21 (89%)
09/18 A #24 Princeton (0-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 2 (44%)
09/25 H #101 Fairfield (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 26 (95%)
10/02 A #33 Middletown (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/09 H #258 Colerain (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 39 (99%)
10/16 A #358 Sycamore (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 42 (99%)
10/23 A #115 Oak Hills (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 25 (95%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
20.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#4 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
87% (bubble if 4-6), 70% home (maybe if 6-4), 45% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 29.45 ( 1.95-39.15) 98% in, 93% home, 75% bye, proj. #2 (#1-out), bye 77%
Lose: 19.40 ( 0.00-33.70) 82% in, 60% home, 30% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 37%
Based on eventual number of wins
(11%) 10W: 34.75 (30.25-39.15) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(18%) 9W: 30.50 (24.65-37.25) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(18%) 8W: 25.30 (19.45-32.45) 100% home, 71% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 71%
(16%) 7W: 20.15 (15.25-27.85) 100% in, 96% home, 12% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 12%
(13%) 6W: 16.20 (11.00-24.05) 99% in, 52% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Elder (0-0) 10%
( 9%) 5W: 12.25 ( 7.80-22.75) 89% in, 7% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out), Elder (0-0) 10%
( 6%) 4W: 8.45 ( 6.45-15.55) 33% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Elder (0-0) 11%
( 4%) 3W: 5.20 ( 3.90-14.25) 3% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 3%) 2W: 2.60 ( 1.95- 9.10) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 1%) 1W: 1.25 ( 0.65- 6.50) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
Elder (0-0) 4%
Lebanon (0-0) 4%
Springboro (0-0) 3%
Mason (0-0) 3%
Most likely second round opponents
St Xavier (0-0) 11%
Elder (0-0) 11%
Archbishop Moeller (0-0) 10%
Princeton (0-0) 10%
Winton Woods (0-0) 9%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 165.2, #25, D1 #11), 87% (bubble if 4-6), 70% home (maybe if 6-4), 45% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 7-3
Last season 161.0