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Rankings
#10 of 72 in Division 1
#5 of 18 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #23 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #14 in D1 (+255 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 14-7 A #13 St Xavier (4-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 166
08/29 W 35-13 H #78 Mason (2-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 30 (93%), perf. rating 176
09/05 W 38-6 A #88 Hamilton (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 23 (90%), perf. rating 193
09/12 L 27-10 H #12 Princeton (3-1) D1 R4, pick: W by 15 (81%), perf. rating 149
09/19 A #97 Fairfield (2-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 24 (93%)
09/26 H #56 Middletown (4-0) D1 R2, pick: W by 20 (90%)
10/03 A #310 Colerain (0-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 41 (99%)
10/10 H #300 Sycamore (0-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 42 (99%)
10/17 H #132 Oak Hills (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 30 (98%)
10/24 A #51 Lakota East (3-1) D1 R4, pick: W by 16 (85%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
25.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#5 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in and likely home, 45% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 25.30 (10.40-29.20) 100% in, 99% home, 48% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#11), bye 48%
Lose: 20.75 ( 7.80-24.00) 99% in, 87% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#3-out), Oak Hills (1-3) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
(68%) 8W: 25.30 (25.30-29.20) 100% home, 64% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#6), bye 64%
(24%) 7W: 20.75 (19.45-26.60) 100% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#8), Oak Hills (1-3) 18%
( 6%) 6W: 16.25 (14.90-21.40) 100% in, 96% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Oak Hills (1-3) 21%
( 1%) 5W: 12.35 (11.00-19.45) 100% in, 49% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Mason (2-2) 27%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(68%) WWWWWW: 25.30 (25.30-29.20) 100% home, 64% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#6), bye 64%
( 2%) WWWWLW: 22.10 (21.45-24.05) 100% home, 16% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#7), Western Hills (1-3) 16%
( 4%) LWWWWW: 21.40 (20.75-24.00) 100% home, 13% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#7), Oak Hills (1-3) 17%
(13%) WWWWWL: 20.10 (20.10-22.70) 100% home, 3% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#8), Oak Hills (1-3) 21%
( 5%) WLWWWW: 20.10 (19.45-22.70) 100% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#8), Oak Hills (1-3) 19%
( 1%) LWWWWL: 16.85 (16.20-18.80) 100% in, 92% home, proj. #7 (#5-#9), Fairfield (2-2) 27%
( 2%) WLWWWL: 15.55 (14.90-17.50) 100% in, 96% home, proj. #8 (#5-#10), Hamilton (1-3) 24%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 168.4, #21, D1 #10), likely in and likely home, 45% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 177.7, #10, D1 #5), appears locked in and likely home, 86% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 9-1
Week 2 (1-1, 173.4, #13, D1 #4), likely in, 96% home (maybe if 5-5), 74% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 1 (0-1, 175.3, #9, D1 #4), likely in, 91% home (maybe if 6-4), 62% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 178.3, #6, D1 #3), 98% (bubble if 3-7), 90% home (maybe if 5-5), 69% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 9-1
Last season 179.8