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Rankings
#26 of 72 in Division 1
#6 of 18 in Region 1
Strength of schedule #4 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #34 in D1 (-38 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 40-14 A #3 Avon (3-1) D2 R6, pick: L by 29 (9%), perf. rating 152
08/29 L 20-7 H #17 Pickerington North (3-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 4 (42%), perf. rating 149
09/05 L 35-21 A #20 Mentor (4-0) D1 R1, pick: L by 20 (13%), perf. rating 150
09/12 L 31-0 H #6 Walsh Jesuit (4-0) D2 R5, pick: L by 25 (7%), perf. rating 136
09/19 A #103 Riverside (Painesville) (3-1) D2 R5, pick: W by 7 (67%)
09/26 H #91 Benedictine (4-0) D3 R9, pick: W by 8 (69%)
10/03 A #2 St Edward (4-0) D1 R1, pick: L by 35 (1%)
10/10 A #1 Archbishop Moeller (3-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 36 (1%)
10/17 H #13 St Xavier (4-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/24 H Football North ON (1-2) D4
Regular season projections
2-8 record
8.70 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#12 seed in R1 playoffs
Playoff chances now
58% (likely needs 2-8), 5% home (maybe if 4-6)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.26 ( 2.39-25.04) 78% in, 8% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Strongsville (3-1) 19%
Lose: 3.92 ( 0.00-14.96) 17% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Strongsville (3-1) 23%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 4W: 16.08 (12.76-21.48) 100% in, 65% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Jackson (Massillon) (2-2) 25%
(21%) 3W: 11.75 ( 7.31-16.95) 99% in, 13% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Berea-Midpark (3-1) 22%
(40%) 2W: 8.70 ( 3.91-11.76) 80% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Strongsville (3-1) 23%
(26%) 1W: 4.48 ( 1.01- 5.55) 9% in, proj. out (#11-out), Perrysburg (3-1) 29%
(10%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWLLWW: 15.87 (12.76-18.47) 100% in, 61% home, proj. #8 (#6-#11), Jackson (Massillon) (2-2) 27%
( 5%) WWLLWL: 13.89 (10.58-16.44) 100% in, 36% home, proj. #9 (#6-#11), Berea-Midpark (3-1) 21%
(14%) WWLLLW: 11.24 ( 7.31-13.95) 99% in, 5% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Berea-Midpark (3-1) 22%
(28%) WWLLLL: 9.21 ( 6.25-10.89) 89% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Strongsville (3-1) 23%
( 5%) WLLLLW: 6.71 ( 3.91- 8.91) 52% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Perrysburg (3-1) 27%
(10%) WLLLLL: 4.73 ( 2.39- 5.34) 11% in, proj. out (#11-out), Perrysburg (3-1) 34%
(11%) LWLLLL: 4.48 ( 2.74- 5.55) 12% in, proj. out (#11-out), Perrysburg (3-1) 26%
(10%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 148.8, #64, D1 #26), 58% (likely needs 2-8), 5% home (maybe if 4-6), proj. #12 at 2-8
Week 3 (0-3, 149.9, #58, D1 #22), 69% (likely needs 2-8), 14% home (maybe if 3-7), proj. #11 at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 147.0, #76, D1 #27), 61% (likely needs 2-8), 18% home (maybe if 3-7), proj. #10 at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 151.8, #56, D1 #24), 66% (bubble if 2-8), 29% home (maybe if 4-6), 7% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #9 at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 152.8, #50, D1 #23), 60% (bubble if 3-7), 30% home (maybe if 4-6), 10% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #12 at 3-7
Last season 152.6