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Region 1 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#30 of 80 in Division 1
#6 of 19 in Region 1
Strength of schedule #4 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #17 in D1 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 H #1 Avon (0-0) D2 R6, pick: L by 37 (4%)
08/28 A #20 Pickerington North (0-0) D1 R3, pick: L by 23 (12%)
09/04 H #17 Mentor (0-0) D1 R1, pick: L by 22 (11%)
09/11 A #4 Walsh Jesuit (0-0) D2 R5, pick: L by 31 (3%)
09/18 H #524 John Marshall (0-0) D1 R1, pick: W by 46 (99%)
09/25 A #117 Benedictine (0-0) D3 R9, pick: W by 8 (69%)
10/02 H #5 St Edward (0-0) D1 R1, pick: L by 28 (4%)
10/09 H #7 Archbishop Moeller (0-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 28 (3%)
10/16 A #10 St Xavier (0-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 29 (3%)
10/23 H Football North ON (0-0) D4
Regular season projections
3-7 record
8.34 Harbin points (divisor 94)
#11 seed in R1 playoffs
Playoff chances now
61% (bubble if 2-8), 24% home (maybe if 4-6), 6% bye (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 17.91 ( 4.44-45.67) 97% in, 74% home, 35% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 36%
Lose: 7.44 ( 0.00-42.31) 60% in, 22% home, 5% bye, proj. #12 (#1-out), Berea-Midpark (0-0) 9%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 8W: 29.55 (20.86-38.98) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 98%
( 2%) 7W: 24.99 (14.99-33.76) 100% home, 79% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 79%
( 5%) 6W: 20.30 (11.10-29.55) 99% in, 97% home, 37% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 37%
( 9%) 5W: 16.06 ( 8.06-25.44) 99% in, 82% home, 8% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), bye 8%
(16%) 4W: 12.19 ( 4.11-23.29) 97% in, 43% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Berea-Midpark (0-0) 9%
(25%) 3W: 8.34 ( 2.44-16.79) 78% in, 8% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Hudson (0-0) 10%
(28%) 2W: 5.14 ( 1.15-11.41) 30% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Berea-Midpark (0-0) 11%
(13%) 1W: 2.46 ( 0.50- 6.45) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 1%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
Berea-Midpark (0-0) 8%
Hudson (0-0) 8%
Cleveland Heights (0-0) 8%
Strongsville (0-0) 7%
Most likely second round opponents
Mentor (0-0) 19%
St Edward (0-0) 17%
Austintown-Fitch (0-0) 16%
Canton McKinley (0-0) 11%
Hudson (0-0) 9%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 145.4, #74, D1 #30), 61% (bubble if 2-8), 24% home (maybe if 4-6), 6% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #11 at 3-7
Last season 143.7