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Rankings
#55 of 107 in Division 6
#15 of 27 in Region 23
Strength of schedule #23 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #48 in D6 (-122 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 21-20 H #559 Monroe Central (1-3) D6 R23, pick: L by 21 (17%), perf. rating 70
08/29 L 44-14 A #367 North Union (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 16 (21%), perf. rating 58
09/05 W 56-21 H #577 Meigs (1-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 7 (65%), perf. rating 116
09/12 W 41-7 A #673 Lakewood (Hebron) (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 33 (98%), perf. rating 89
09/19 A #187 Bloom-Carroll (2-2) D3 R11, pick: L by 35 (1%)
09/26 H #470 Logan Elm (0-4) D4 R15, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/03 A #324 Fairfield Union (1-3) D4 R15, pick: L by 25 (5%)
10/10 H #197 Hamilton Township (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/17 A #342 Circleville (4-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/24 H #259 Amanda-Clearcreek (1-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 28 (3%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
5.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R23 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.65 ( 5.95-19.05) 11% in, 7% home, 2% bye, proj. out (#4-out)
Lose: 5.20 ( 2.55-17.85) 1% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Ridgewood (4-0) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 6W: 11.00 ( 8.00-14.25) 24% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out)
(12%) 5W: 8.30 ( 5.75-13.90) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(42%) 4W: 5.65 ( 3.15-10.80) out, proj. out
(42%) 3W: 4.70 ( 2.55- 6.80) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) LWLLWL: 8.75 ( 6.45-11.95) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 100%
( 3%) LLLLWL: 7.80 ( 5.55- 9.75) out
( 3%) LWLLLW: 7.80 ( 5.75-10.30) out
( 2%) LWWLLL: 7.15 ( 5.80- 9.05) out
( 1%) LLLLLW: 6.80 ( 4.55- 8.80) out
( 1%) LLWLLL: 6.20 ( 4.35- 8.25) out
(36%) LWLLLL: 5.60 ( 3.15- 7.45) out
(42%) LLLLLL: 4.70 ( 2.55- 6.80) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 80.6, #490, D6 #55), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (2-1, 80.0, #501, D6 #56), 3% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 68.9, #569, D6 #73), 3% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (1-0, 77.9, #526, D6 #65), 25% (bubble if 6-4), 10% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 70.3, #553, D6 #71), 11% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 66.0