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Rankings
#25 of 107 in Division 6
#10 of 26 in Region 22
Strength of schedule #76 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #31 in D6 (+35 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 55-0 H #626 Swanton (0-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 34 (94%), perf. rating 116
08/29 W 60-0 A #630 North Central (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 41 (98%), perf. rating 119
09/06 W 33-7 A #538 Jefferson (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 23 (90%), perf. rating 115
09/12 W 39-7 A #519 Wayne Trace (0-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 23 (91%), perf. rating 126
09/19 H #549 Ayersville (0-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 33 (98%)
09/26 H #247 Fairview (Sherwood) (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/03 A #420 Edgerton (4-0) D7 R26, pick: W by 17 (86%)
10/10 H #592 Hicksville (1-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 37 (99%)
10/17 A #318 Tinora (1-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/24 H #594 Antwerp (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 37 (99%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
13.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#9 seed in R22 playoffs
Playoff chances now
87% (bubble if 7-3), 50% home (maybe if 9-1), 13% bye (maybe if 10-0)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.35 ( 4.65-19.45) 87% in, 50% home, 13% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), bye 15%
Lose: 9.50 ( 4.10-16.50) 56% in, 11% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Seneca East (3-1) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
(26%) 10W: 17.20 (15.95-19.45) 100% home, 49% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#8), bye 49%
(37%) 9W: 13.70 (11.80-18.00) 99% in, 61% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), W. Reserve (Collins) (3-1) 15%
(26%) 8W: 10.95 ( 8.50-14.85) 83% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Archbold (3-1) 14%
(10%) 7W: 8.10 ( 6.60-11.45) 23% in, proj. out (#9-out), Fairview (Sherwood) (4-0) 16%
( 1%) 6W: 6.55 ( 4.90- 8.35) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(26%) WWWWWW: 17.20 (15.95-19.45) 100% home, 49% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#8), bye 49%
(12%) WWWWLW: 14.80 (13.30-16.85) 100% in, 82% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Tinora (1-3) 12%
( 2%) WWLWWW: 14.10 (12.65-16.05) 100% in, 75% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Seneca East (3-1) 16%
(22%) WLWWWW: 13.20 (11.80-15.25) 99% in, 48% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), W. Reserve (Collins) (3-1) 17%
( 2%) WWLWLW: 11.70 (10.30-13.40) 97% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Patrick Henry (4-0) 13%
(19%) WLWWLW: 10.95 ( 9.50-13.30) 80% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Archbold (3-1) 15%
( 4%) WLLWWW: 10.05 ( 8.50-12.00) 83% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Patrick Henry (4-0) 14%
( 8%) WLLWLW: 8.05 ( 6.60- 9.90) 16% in, proj. out (#9-out), Fairview (Sherwood) (4-0) 18%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 111.3, #282, D6 #25), 87% (bubble if 7-3), 50% home (maybe if 9-1), 13% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #9 at 9-1
Week 3 (3-0, 104.4, #345, D6 #32), 81% (bubble if 7-3), 41% home (maybe if 9-1), 8% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #10 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 101.1, #355, D6 #33), 72% (bubble if 7-3), 47% home (maybe if 8-2), 15% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #10 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 100.5, #356, D6 #31), 66% (bubble if 7-3), 43% home (maybe if 8-2), 17% bye (likely needs 10-0), proj. #9 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 96.4, #394, D6 #35), 63% (bubble if 7-3), 36% home (maybe if 8-2), 11% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #8 at 8-2
Last season 99.8