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Rankings
#32 of 107 in Division 6
#7 of 27 in Region 23
Strength of schedule #13 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #41 in D6 (-55 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 16-0 A #447 Upper Sandusky (1-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 28 (90%), perf. rating 112
08/29 W 27-21 H #314 Seneca East (3-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 26 (90%), perf. rating 115
09/05 L 19-13 A #367 North Union (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 15 (80%), perf. rating 93
09/12 L 44-27 H #270 Centerburg (3-1) D6 R23, pick: W by 5 (62%), perf. rating 86
09/19 A #430 Danville (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 11 (75%)
09/26 H #319 Fredericktown (4-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/03 H #499 East Knox (1-3) D6 R23, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/10 A #431 Mount Gilead (4-0) D6 R23, pick: W by 12 (79%)
10/17 A #522 Cardington-Lincoln (2-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/24 H #529 Loudonville (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 27 (96%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
14.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#8 seed in R23 playoffs
Playoff chances now
79% (bubble if 6-4), 48% home (maybe if 7-3), 15% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.05 ( 5.95-21.15) 88% in, 58% home, 19% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), bye 22%
Lose: 11.80 ( 4.05-17.70) 50% in, 17% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
(30%) 8W: 18.25 (16.65-21.15) 100% in, 99% home, 48% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#9), bye 48%
(34%) 7W: 14.80 (12.90-18.40) 99% in, 53% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 14%
(21%) 6W: 12.20 ( 9.80-16.45) 68% in, 6% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Ridgewood (4-0) 14%
(10%) 5W: 9.75 ( 7.55-13.80) 10% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
( 4%) 4W: 7.85 ( 5.95-11.50) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 1%) 3W: 6.35 ( 4.85- 8.55) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(30%) WWWWWW: 18.25 (16.65-21.15) 100% in, 99% home, 48% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#9), bye 48%
( 4%) LWWWWW: 15.95 (14.15-17.70) 100% in, 82% home, 6% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Grove City Christian (3-1) 13%
( 5%) WWWLWW: 15.00 (13.15-17.55) 99% in, 43% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 16%
(21%) WLWWWW: 14.50 (12.90-16.70) 99% in, 44% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 14%
( 7%) LLWWWW: 12.25 (10.70-14.55) 77% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 15%
( 6%) WLWLWW: 11.35 ( 9.80-13.60) 40% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Colonel Crawford (4-0) 17%
( 4%) LLWLWW: 9.00 ( 7.55-11.40) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out), Centerburg (3-1) 22%
( 1%) LLWLLW: 7.45 ( 5.95- 9.40) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 104.2, #339, D6 #32), 79% (bubble if 6-4), 48% home (maybe if 7-3), 15% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 112.4, #272, D6 #19), 90% (bubble if 5-5), 76% home (maybe if 7-3), 55% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 116.5, #247, D6 #16), 92% (bubble if 6-4), 82% home (maybe if 7-3), 65% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 122.7, #193, D6 #10), 92% (bubble if 5-5), 82% home (maybe if 7-3), 62% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 125.1, #179, D6 #8), 91% (bubble if 6-4), 82% home (maybe if 7-3), 63% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 9-1
Last season 130.3