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Rankings
#42 of 108 in Division 6
#10 of 26 in Region 23
Strength of schedule #21 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #33 in D6 (+24 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 35-14 A #421 Utica (2-6) D5 R19, pick: W by 26 (88%), perf. rating 124
08/28 L 50-0 A #169 Johnstown (6-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 7 (36%), perf. rating 66
09/04 L 31-13 H #322 Worthington Christian (5-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 11 (73%), perf. rating 78
09/11 W 21-9 H #380 East Knox (5-3) D6 R23, pick: L by 10 (28%), perf. rating 113
09/18 W 48-28 H #495 Northmor (1-7) D6 R23, pick: W by 10 (73%), perf. rating 108
09/25 W 7-0 A #451 Loudonville (3-5) D7 R27, pick: W by 10 (74%), perf. rating 100
10/02 W 42-7 H #623 Cardington-Lincoln (0-8) D6 R23, pick: W by 37 (99%), perf. rating 103
10/09 W 13-12 A #371 Mount Gilead (4-4) D6 R23, pick: L by 2 (44%), perf. rating 102
10/16 A #111 Danville (8-0) D7 R27, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/23 H #395 Fredericktown (6-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 7 (68%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
13.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#9 seed in R23 playoffs
Playoff chances now
80% (bubble if 6-4), 25% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 17.55 (13.95-18.00) 100% in, 86% home, 43% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 43%
Lose: 13.70 (10.05-14.50) 80% in, 24% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Newark Catholic (6-2) 30%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 8W: 17.60 (17.10-18.00) 100% home, 54% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#6), bye 54%
(68%) 7W: 13.75 (13.25-15.20) 100% in, 34% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-#10), Newark Catholic (6-2) 34%
(31%) 6W: 10.55 (10.05-11.70) 35% in, proj. out (#10-out), Newcomerstown (6-2) 33%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WW: 17.60 (17.10-18.00) 100% home, 54% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#6), bye 54%
(67%) LW: 13.75 (13.25-14.50) 100% in, 34% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-#10), Newark Catholic (6-2) 34%
(31%) LL: 10.55 (10.05-11.70) 35% in, proj. out (#10-out), Newcomerstown (6-2) 33%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (5-2, 99.2, #368, D6 #43), 55% (bubble if 6-4), 26% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 6-4
Week 6 (4-2, 98.4, #377, D6 #41), 64% (bubble if 6-4), 29% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 5 (3-2, 97.7, #379, D6 #43), 55% (bubble if 6-4), 24% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 4 (2-2, 96.8, #396, D6 #44), 48% (bubble if 6-4), 18% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 3 (1-2, 92.3, #415, D6 #46), 22% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 105.0, #328, D6 #31), 76% (bubble if 6-4), 56% home (maybe if 7-3), 25% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 120.0, #217, D6 #17), 90% (bubble if 6-4), 75% home (maybe if 7-3), 46% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 119.4, #208, D6 #17), 84% (bubble if 6-4), 69% home (maybe if 7-3), 45% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Last season 122.7