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Rankings
#41 of 108 in Division 6
#9 of 26 in Region 23
Strength of schedule #22 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #39 in D6 (-58 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 35-14 A #421 Utica (1-5) D5 R19, pick: W by 26 (88%), perf. rating 124
08/28 L 50-0 A #208 Johnstown (4-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 7 (36%), perf. rating 61
09/04 L 31-13 H #348 Worthington Christian (4-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 11 (73%), perf. rating 73
09/11 W 21-9 H #391 East Knox (4-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 10 (28%), perf. rating 111
09/18 W 48-28 H #480 Northmor (1-5) D6 R23, pick: W by 10 (73%), perf. rating 110
09/25 W 7-0 A #462 Loudonville (3-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 10 (74%), perf. rating 98
10/02 H #628 Cardington-Lincoln (0-6) D6 R23, pick: W by 37 (99%)
10/09 A #382 Mount Gilead (3-3) D6 R23, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/16 A #99 Danville (6-0) D7 R27, pick: L by 33 (1%)
10/23 H #383 Fredericktown (4-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 3 (57%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
10.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#12 seed in R23 playoffs
Playoff chances now
64% (bubble if 6-4), 29% home (likely needs 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.95 ( 6.65-18.45) 64% in, 29% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#2-out), Elgin (4-2) 12%
Lose: 9.93 ( 6.80-13.80) 39% in, 13% home, proj. out (#5-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(31%) 7W: 13.75 (12.80-15.70) 100% in, 87% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Elgin (4-2) 21%
(41%) 6W: 10.90 ( 9.60-13.80) 75% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Newark Catholic (4-2) 19%
(26%) 5W: 8.05 ( 6.65-11.70) 3% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(31%) WWLW: 13.75 (12.80-15.05) 100% in, 87% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Elgin (4-2) 22%
(25%) WLLW: 10.90 ( 9.90-12.55) 76% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Newark Catholic (4-2) 20%
(15%) WWLL: 10.55 ( 9.60-12.25) 73% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Waterford (4-2) 19%
(26%) WLLL: 8.05 ( 6.65-10.15) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Waterford (4-2) 33%
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (4-2, 98.4, #377, D6 #41), 64% (bubble if 6-4), 29% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 5 (3-2, 97.7, #379, D6 #43), 55% (bubble if 6-4), 24% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 4 (2-2, 96.8, #396, D6 #44), 48% (bubble if 6-4), 18% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 3 (1-2, 92.3, #415, D6 #46), 22% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 105.0, #328, D6 #31), 76% (bubble if 6-4), 56% home (maybe if 7-3), 25% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 120.0, #217, D6 #17), 90% (bubble if 6-4), 75% home (maybe if 7-3), 46% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 119.4, #208, D6 #17), 84% (bubble if 6-4), 69% home (maybe if 7-3), 45% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Last season 122.7