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Rankings
#21 of 107 in Division 6
#5 of 27 in Region 23
Strength of schedule #27 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #18 in D6 (+138 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 34-0 H #423 Utica (1-3) D5 R18, pick: W by 11 (69%), perf. rating 141
08/29 L 42-14 H #219 Johnstown (2-2) D4 R15, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 76
09/05 W 53-14 A #560 Worthington Christian (1-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 29 (95%), perf. rating 130
09/12 W 44-27 A #339 Northmor (2-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 5 (38%), perf. rating 131
09/19 H #529 Loudonville (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 32 (98%)
09/26 A #522 Cardington-Lincoln (2-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/03 H #431 Mount Gilead (4-0) D6 R23, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/10 H #430 Danville (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/17 A #499 East Knox (1-3) D6 R23, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/24 A #319 Fredericktown (4-0) D5 R18, pick: W by 4 (60%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
16.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#4 seed in R23 playoffs
Playoff chances now
97% (bubble if 6-4), 87% home (maybe if 7-3), 53% bye (likely needs 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 18.75 ( 6.80-22.45) 98% in, 88% home, 54% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 55%
Lose: 14.60 ( 6.45-20.80) 81% in, 53% home, 18% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), bye 23%
Based on eventual number of wins
(48%) 9W: 20.15 (18.60-22.45) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 97%
(37%) 8W: 16.35 (14.50-20.95) 100% in, 96% home, 18% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#11), bye 18%
(12%) 7W: 14.00 (11.25-17.95) 96% in, 35% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 13%
( 3%) 6W: 11.65 ( 9.10-14.95) 52% in, 4% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 12%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(48%) WWWWWW: 20.15 (18.60-22.45) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 97%
( 2%) WWWWLW: 18.60 (16.15-20.95) 100% home, 59% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 59%
( 3%) WWWLWW: 17.73 (16.10-19.70) 100% home, 42% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#8), bye 42%
( 3%) WWLWWW: 16.60 (15.30-18.70) 100% in, 95% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), Toronto (4-0) 10%
(27%) WWWWWL: 16.25 (14.50-18.65) 100% in, 96% home, 12% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 12%
( 2%) WWWWLL: 14.75 (13.00-16.95) 100% in, 56% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Toronto (4-0) 12%
( 4%) WWWLWL: 14.00 (12.05-16.65) 99% in, 36% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 13%
( 3%) WWLWWL: 13.10 (11.25-15.25) 87% in, 7% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 13%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 112.8, #270, D6 #21), 97% (bubble if 6-4), 87% home (maybe if 7-3), 53% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 109.8, #286, D6 #22), 80% (bubble if 6-4), 55% home (maybe if 7-3), 28% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 108.4, #304, D6 #24), 74% (bubble if 6-4), 48% home (maybe if 7-3), 21% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 114.7, #253, D6 #15), 80% (bubble if 6-4), 62% home (maybe if 7-3), 39% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 102.9, #331, D6 #21), 56% (bubble if 6-4), 39% home (maybe if 7-3), 21% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 111.5