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Rankings
#44 of 107 in Division 7
#8 of 25 in Region 27
Strength of schedule #22 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #54 in D7 (-128 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 60-0 H #660 Mapleton (1-3) D6 R21, pick: L by 4 (43%), perf. rating 102
08/29 W 48-16 H #663 Richmond Heights (0-4) D6 R21, pick: W by 27 (91%), perf. rating 86
09/05 L 35-14 A #243 Hillsdale (4-0) D7 R27, pick: L by 34 (3%), perf. rating 87
09/12 L 27-12 A #499 East Knox (1-3) D6 R23, pick: W by 8 (68%), perf. rating 59
09/19 A #270 Centerburg (3-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 32 (2%)
09/26 H #430 Danville (2-2) D7 R27, pick: L by 13 (20%)
10/03 A #319 Fredericktown (4-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 29 (3%)
10/10 H #522 Cardington-Lincoln (2-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/17 H #431 Mount Gilead (4-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 13 (20%)
10/24 A #339 Northmor (2-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 27 (4%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
4.50 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R27 playoffs
Playoff chances now
14% (likely needs 5-5), 3% home (likely needs 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.50 ( 4.70-19.75) 70% in, 36% home, 11% bye, proj. #10 (#1-out), bye 15%
Lose: 4.50 ( 1.50-16.80) 13% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Trimble (3-1) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 6W: 12.30 ( 9.50-14.85) 100% in, 88% home, 9% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), River (3-1) 13%
( 9%) 5W: 9.30 ( 6.60-12.80) 86% in, 12% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 11%
(21%) 4W: 6.85 ( 4.50-10.80) 19% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Trimble (3-1) 18%
(34%) 3W: 4.50 ( 2.65- 7.55) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(33%) 2W: 3.00 ( 1.50- 4.10) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LLLWWW: 9.80 ( 7.95-11.50) 91% in, 12% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 14%
( 5%) LWLWWL: 8.95 ( 6.60-11.35) 84% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Miller (3-1) 11%
( 9%) LLLWWL: 7.00 ( 5.10- 8.95) 19% in, proj. out (#9-out), Trimble (3-1) 18%
( 7%) LWLWLL: 6.10 ( 4.50- 8.05) 8% in, proj. out (#10-out), Miller (3-1) 26%
( 5%) LLLLWL: 5.45 ( 3.55- 7.40) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Miller (3-1) 50%
( 4%) LWLLLL: 4.55 ( 2.65- 6.55) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Miller (3-1) 50%
(23%) LLLWLL: 4.45 ( 2.65- 6.75) out
(33%) LLLLLL: 3.00 ( 1.50- 4.10) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 75.7, #529, D7 #44), 14% (likely needs 5-5), 3% home (likely needs 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (2-1, 84.0, #469, D7 #36), 38% (bubble if 5-5), 16% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (2-0, 82.5, #488, D7 #37), 35% (bubble if 5-5), 15% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 79.6, #519, D7 #42), 25% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 57.0, #617, D7 #62), 11% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 51.8