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Rankings
#44 of 106 in Division 5
#9 of 25 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #18 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #51 in D5 (-117 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 16-13 A #398 Pleasant (1-3) D5 R20, pick: L by 23 (15%), perf. rating 93
08/29 W 44-14 H #490 Liberty Union (3-1) D6 R23, pick: W by 16 (79%), perf. rating 123
09/05 W 19-13 H #339 Northmor (2-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 15 (20%), perf. rating 111
09/12 L 42-23 H #191 Jonathan Alder (4-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 13 (22%), perf. rating 94
09/19 A #345 Urbana (1-3) D4 R16, pick: L by 5 (38%)
09/26 H #299 Indian Lake (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 7 (33%)
10/03 A #275 Benjamin Logan (2-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 14 (18%)
10/10 A #393 Northwestern (Sprfd.) (3-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/17 H #551 Shawnee (Springfield) (0-4) D4 R16, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/24 H #222 Graham Local (4-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 16 (15%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
8.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
51% (bubble if 4-6), 26% home (maybe if 6-4), 7% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.00 ( 5.00-22.20) 78% in, 47% home, 14% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), bye 19%
Lose: 7.90 ( 3.45-20.25) 35% in, 13% home, 2% bye, proj. out (#1-out), Greeneview (2-2) 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 8W: 19.65 (17.45-22.20) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 98%
( 8%) 7W: 16.12 (13.20-20.25) 100% in, 99% home, 35% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 35%
(15%) 6W: 13.20 ( 9.90-17.45) 99% in, 74% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-out), Greeneview (2-2) 16%
(21%) 5W: 10.60 ( 7.05-14.80) 88% in, 14% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 12%
(26%) 4W: 8.15 ( 5.00-12.65) 23% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Miami East (3-1) 20%
(23%) 3W: 5.90 ( 3.55-10.20) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 3%) 2W: 5.40 ( 3.45- 7.55) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 4%) WWWWWW: 19.65 (17.45-22.20) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 98%
( 4%) WWLWWL: 12.10 ( 9.90-15.15) 99% in, 54% home, proj. #8 (#5-out), Greeneview (2-2) 17%
( 4%) LWLWWL: 10.60 ( 8.15-13.05) 94% in, 14% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 17%
( 6%) WLLWWL: 9.85 ( 7.50-12.60) 75% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Miami East (3-1) 16%
(11%) LLLWWL: 8.30 ( 5.90-10.60) 21% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Miami East (3-1) 23%
( 6%) WLLLWL: 7.35 ( 5.00-10.00) 7% in, proj. out (#10-out), Miami East (3-1) 21%
(21%) LLLLWL: 5.90 ( 3.55- 8.40) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Miami East (3-1) 40%
( 3%) LLLLLL: 5.40 ( 3.45- 7.55) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 100.3, #367, D5 #44), 51% (bubble if 4-6), 26% home (maybe if 6-4), 7% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (2-1, 105.5, #335, D5 #37), 72% (bubble if 4-6), 44% home (maybe if 5-5), 20% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 99.4, #368, D5 #45), 35% (bubble if 4-6), 19% home (maybe if 6-4), 7% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 91.6, #428, D5 #57), 28% (bubble if 5-5), 15% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 85.2, #487, D5 #68), 26% (bubble if 5-5), 12% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 77.1