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Rankings
#13 of 106 in Division 5
#5 of 25 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #35 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #15 in D5 (+234 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 49-7 H #370 Pleasant (2-5) D5 R18, pick: W by 7 (63%), perf. rating 159
08/28 W 48-0 H #560 Waynesfield-Goshen (5-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 39 (97%), perf. rating 129
09/04 W 41-14 A #480 Northmor (1-6) D6 R23, pick: W by 32 (96%), perf. rating 126
09/11 L 26-14 A #106 Jonathan Alder (6-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 15 (19%), perf. rating 123
09/18 L 34-33 H #151 Urbana (5-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 126
09/25 W 21-7 A #234 Indian Lake (4-3) D5 R18, pick: W by 7 (67%), perf. rating 141
10/02 W 28-26 H #191 Benjamin Logan (3-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 8 (70%), perf. rating 125
10/09 H #632 Northwestern (Sprfd.) (0-7) D5 R20, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/16 A #520 Shawnee (Springfield) (2-5) D4 R16, pick: W by 37 (99%)
10/23 A #142 Graham Local (6-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 5 (37%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
14.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#10 seed in R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 39% home (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.70 (11.05-20.50) 99% in, 39% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Vermilion (6-1) 16%
Lose: 14.05 (12.80-19.30) 95% in, 20% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Genoa Area (5-2) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
(38%) 8W: 18.25 (17.05-20.50) 100% in, 92% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#10), Vermilion (6-1) 19%
(61%) 7W: 14.10 (12.50-19.30) 99% in, 6% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Genoa Area (5-2) 17%
( 2%) 6W: 13.50 (11.05-15.35) 86% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Coldwater (6-1) 19%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(38%) WWW: 18.25 (17.05-20.50) 100% in, 92% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#10), Vermilion (6-1) 19%
(60%) WWL: 14.10 (12.50-16.40) 99% in, 5% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Genoa Area (5-2) 17%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (5-2, 128.9, #154, D5 #13), likely in, 39% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 6 (4-2, 128.9, #159, D5 #12), 82% (bubble if 6-4), 33% home (likely needs 8-2), 2% bye, proj. #11 at 7-3
Week 5 (3-2, 127.2, #173, D5 #14), 59% (likely needs 7-3), 25% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. #11 at 7-3
Week 4 (3-1, 127.9, #159, D5 #9), 75% (bubble if 6-4), 43% home (maybe if 8-2), 11% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 3 (3-0, 124.8, #184, D5 #14), 69% (bubble if 7-3), 42% home (maybe if 8-2), 16% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 127.5, #165, D5 #13), 69% (bubble if 7-3), 46% home (maybe if 8-2), 24% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 123.3, #193, D5 #17), 68% (bubble if 6-4), 45% home (maybe if 8-2), 22% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 106.1, #304, D5 #37), 38% (bubble if 6-4), 20% home (maybe if 8-2), 7% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 116.5