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Rankings
#17 of 106 in Division 5
#7 of 25 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #37 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #15 in D5 (+180 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 49-7 H #378 Pleasant (2-6) D5 R18, pick: W by 7 (63%), perf. rating 158
08/28 W 48-0 H #568 Waynesfield-Goshen (6-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 39 (97%), perf. rating 128
09/04 W 41-14 A #495 Northmor (1-7) D6 R23, pick: W by 32 (96%), perf. rating 123
09/11 L 26-14 A #126 Jonathan Alder (6-2) D3 R11, pick: L by 15 (19%), perf. rating 118
09/18 L 34-33 H #178 Urbana (5-3) D4 R16, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 122
09/25 W 21-7 A #164 Indian Lake (5-3) D5 R18, pick: W by 7 (67%), perf. rating 150
10/02 W 28-26 H #242 Benjamin Logan (3-5) D4 R14, pick: W by 8 (70%), perf. rating 117
10/09 W 54-0 H #627 Northwestern (Sprfd.) (0-8) D5 R20, pick: W by 49 (99%), perf. rating 112
10/16 A #518 Shawnee (Springfield) (2-6) D4 R16, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/23 A #139 Graham Local (7-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 7 (32%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
14.05 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#11 seed in R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
94% (likely in at 7-3 or better), 35% home (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.35 (12.90-19.55) 95% in, 35% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Bluffton (7-1) 19%
Lose: 12.60 (11.60-17.15) 43% in, 22% home, proj. out (#5-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(32%) 8W: 18.15 (17.10-19.55) 100% home, 1% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#8), Vermilion (6-2) 22%
(67%) 7W: 14.05 (12.90-17.15) 93% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Bluffton (7-1) 28%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(32%) WW: 18.15 (17.10-19.55) 100% home, 1% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#8), Vermilion (6-2) 22%
(66%) WL: 14.05 (12.90-15.40) 93% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Bluffton (7-1) 28%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (5-2, 128.9, #154, D5 #13), likely in, 39% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 6 (4-2, 128.9, #159, D5 #12), 82% (bubble if 6-4), 33% home (likely needs 8-2), 2% bye, proj. #11 at 7-3
Week 5 (3-2, 127.2, #173, D5 #14), 59% (likely needs 7-3), 25% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. #11 at 7-3
Week 4 (3-1, 127.9, #159, D5 #9), 75% (bubble if 6-4), 43% home (maybe if 8-2), 11% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 3 (3-0, 124.8, #184, D5 #14), 69% (bubble if 7-3), 42% home (maybe if 8-2), 16% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 127.5, #165, D5 #13), 69% (bubble if 7-3), 46% home (maybe if 8-2), 24% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 123.3, #193, D5 #17), 68% (bubble if 6-4), 45% home (maybe if 8-2), 22% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 106.1, #304, D5 #37), 38% (bubble if 6-4), 20% home (maybe if 8-2), 7% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 116.5