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Rankings
#51 of 107 in Division 6
#11 of 26 in Region 23
Strength of schedule #32 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #57 in D6 (-40 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 42-19 H #287 Martins Ferry (2-0) D5 R17, pick: L by 3 (45%), perf. rating 74
08/28 W 27-25 A #412 Upper Sandusky (1-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 20 (16%), perf. rating 98
09/04 H #596 Grove City Christian (0-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 27 (93%)
09/11 H #484 Loudonville (2-0) D7 R27, pick: W by 11 (74%)
09/18 A #184 Danville (2-0) D7 R27, pick: L by 30 (3%)
09/25 A #426 Fredericktown (1-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 2 (44%)
10/02 A #428 East Knox (2-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 2 (44%)
10/09 H #328 Centerburg (1-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 13 (20%)
10/16 A #460 Northmor (0-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 3 (58%)
10/23 H #622 Cardington-Lincoln (0-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 31 (98%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
2.79 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R23 playoffs
Playoff chances now
42% (bubble if 6-4), 21% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 3.26 ( 1.22- 5.48) 43% in, 22% home, 6% bye, proj. out (#1-out), bye 13%
Lose: 1.66 ( 0.66- 4.07) 8% in, 3% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(10%) 8W: 4.62 ( 4.38- 4.93) 100% in, 99% home, 43% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 43%
(17%) 7W: 3.98 ( 3.72- 4.26) 99% in, 55% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), River (2-0) 9%
(21%) 6W: 3.37 ( 3.08- 3.76) 60% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Waterford (2-0) 13%
(21%) 5W: 2.79 ( 2.54- 3.18) 4% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(17%) 4W: 2.26 ( 2.01- 2.56) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 9%) 3W: 1.76 ( 1.46- 2.04) out, proj. out
( 3%) 2W: 1.29 ( 1.06- 1.44) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 9%) WWLWWWWW: 4.62 ( 4.38- 4.93) 100% in, 99% home, 44% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 44%
( 8%) WWLWWLWW: 3.94 ( 3.75- 4.16) 99% in, 50% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), River (2-0) 10%
( 6%) WWLLWLWW: 3.34 ( 3.08- 3.58) 48% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Waterford (2-0) 14%
( 5%) WWLWLLWW: 3.31 ( 3.08- 3.52) 48% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Waterford (2-0) 16%
( 4%) WWLLWLLW: 2.83 ( 2.58- 3.18) 5% in, proj. out (#11-out), Colonel Crawford (1-1) 22%
( 6%) WWLLLLWW: 2.73 ( 2.54- 2.93) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Newcomerstown (1-1) 67%
( 9%) WWLLLLLW: 2.26 ( 2.02- 2.46) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Waterford (2-0) 100%
( 6%) WLLLLLLW: 1.76 ( 1.54- 1.95) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 90.4, #426, D6 #52), 43% (bubble if 6-4), 21% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 87.3, #445, D6 #55), 19% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 97.6, #382, D6 #36), 53% (bubble if 5-5), 35% home (maybe if 7-3), 15% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 6-4
Last season 100.5