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Rankings
#56 of 101 in Division 4
#14 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #80 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #61 in D4 (-270 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 30-21 A #445 Northmor (0-3) D6 R23, pick: L by 21 (17%), perf. rating 104
08/28 L 27-25 H #396 Mount Gilead (2-1) D6 R23, pick: W by 20 (84%), perf. rating 91
09/04 W 48-7 H #574 Wynford (1-2) D6 R22, pick: W by 27 (93%), perf. rating 125
09/11 A #206 Carey (1-2) D6 R22, pick: L by 23 (9%)
09/18 A #330 Mohawk (2-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 8 (31%)
09/25 H #95 Hopewell-Loudon (3-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/02 H #605 Bucyrus (2-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 34 (99%)
10/09 H #606 Willard (2-1) D5 R18, pick: W by 34 (99%)
10/16 A #601 Buckeye Central (1-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 31 (98%)
10/23 A #263 Seneca East (3-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 17 (13%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
7.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#12 seed in R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
72% (bubble if 5-5), 15% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.85 ( 6.40-21.70) 96% in, 49% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Firelands (2-1) 15%
Lose: 8.55 ( 1.95-19.00) 70% in, 11% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#3-out), Firelands (2-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 8W: 16.30 (13.90-19.00) 100% in, 96% home, 2% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#12), Firelands (2-1) 15%
(12%) 7W: 13.30 (10.85-16.60) 99% in, 58% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Firelands (2-1) 17%
(29%) 6W: 10.55 ( 8.15-13.65) 95% in, 13% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Firelands (2-1) 16%
(48%) 5W: 7.85 ( 6.20-11.70) 57% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Bellevue (2-1) 15%
( 6%) 4W: 6.00 ( 4.20- 9.15) 18% in, proj. out (#9-out), Bellevue (2-1) 19%
( 1%) 3W: 4.40 ( 2.65- 6.30) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWWWWWW: 17.15 (15.45-19.00) 100% in, 97% home, 3% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Firelands (2-1) 16%
( 2%) WWLWWWW: 15.85 (13.90-18.00) 100% in, 95% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#12), Firelands (2-1) 15%
( 8%) LWLWWWW: 13.30 (11.20-15.60) 99% in, 61% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Firelands (2-1) 17%
(17%) LWLWWWL: 10.55 ( 8.55-13.20) 94% in, 13% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Firelands (2-1) 15%
( 8%) LLLWWWW: 10.55 ( 8.90-13.65) 95% in, 13% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Firelands (2-1) 15%
(46%) LLLWWWL: 7.85 ( 6.20-10.60) 56% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Bellevue (2-1) 16%
( 3%) LLLWWLL: 6.05 ( 4.45- 8.60) 18% in, proj. out (#10-out), Bellevue (2-1) 22%
( 2%) LLLWLWL: 5.90 ( 4.20- 8.20) 19% in, proj. out (#10-out), Bellevue (2-1) 18%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 99.2, #370, D4 #56), 72% (bubble if 5-5), 15% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 92.9, #411, D4 #66), 54% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 105.0, #324, D4 #46), 78% (bubble if 5-5), 36% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 93.2, #417, D4 #63), 41% (bubble if 5-5), 15% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 93.3