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Rankings
#74 of 105 in Division 4
#20 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #83 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #88 in D4 (-605 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 16-0 H #339 Northmor (2-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 28 (10%), perf. rating 78
08/29 L 7-6 A #431 Mount Gilead (4-0) D6 R23, pick: W by 4 (58%), perf. rating 91
09/05 W 28-18 H #508 Northwood (2-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 10 (71%), perf. rating 92
09/12 L 33-7 H #262 Carey (1-3) D6 R22, pick: L by 16 (17%), perf. rating 74
09/19 A #548 Wynford (1-3) D6 R23, pick: W by 12 (77%)
09/26 H #314 Seneca East (3-1) D6 R22, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/03 A #649 Bucyrus (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 30 (97%)
10/10 H #237 Mohawk (3-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 26 (4%)
10/17 H #224 Colonel Crawford (4-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/24 A #579 Buckeye Central (3-1) D7 R25, pick: W by 19 (89%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
5.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
6% (likely needs 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.90 ( 2.20-16.70) 7% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Perkins (1-3) 16%
Lose: 4.00 ( 1.40-14.35) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 6W: 11.65 (10.25-14.35) 80% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 15%
(15%) 5W: 8.50 ( 7.30-11.35) 18% in, proj. out (#9-out), Perkins (1-3) 21%
(52%) 4W: 5.90 ( 5.05- 9.10) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(23%) 3W: 4.35 ( 3.30- 7.55) out, proj. out
( 6%) 2W: 3.00 ( 2.15- 5.75) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWLWW: 11.75 (10.85-13.60) 89% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 15%
( 3%) WLWLWW: 9.35 ( 8.20-10.65) 34% in, proj. out (#9-out), Perkins (1-3) 21%
( 3%) WLWWLW: 8.80 ( 7.60-10.50) 18% in, proj. out (#10-out), Perkins (1-3) 21%
( 9%) WWWLLW: 8.15 ( 7.30- 9.70) 11% in, proj. out (#11-out), Perkins (1-3) 20%
(48%) WLWLLW: 5.85 ( 5.05- 7.50) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Napoleon (2-2) 38%
(14%) LLWLLW: 4.35 ( 3.55- 5.95) out
( 8%) WLWLLL: 4.15 ( 3.30- 6.05) out
( 5%) LLWLLL: 2.95 ( 2.15- 4.15) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 86.5, #447, D4 #74), 6% (likely needs 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 91.3, #422, D4 #69), 15% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (0-2, 88.8, #443, D4 #73), 16% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 93.1, #417, D4 #71), 29% (bubble if 6-4), 9% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 90.7, #443, D4 #77), 37% (bubble if 6-4), 16% home (maybe if 8-2), 3% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 95.0