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Rankings
#70 of 102 in Division 4
#19 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #74 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #66 in D4 (-330 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 30-21 A #480 Northmor (1-5) D6 R23, pick: L by 21 (17%), perf. rating 98
08/28 L 27-25 H #382 Mount Gilead (3-3) D6 R23, pick: W by 20 (84%), perf. rating 92
09/04 W 48-7 H #562 Wynford (2-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 27 (93%), perf. rating 127
09/11 L 49-14 A #189 Carey (4-2) D6 R22, pick: L by 24 (8%), perf. rating 74
09/18 L 41-7 A #271 Mohawk (5-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 11 (25%), perf. rating 64
09/25 L 32-10 H #145 Hopewell-Loudon (6-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 31 (2%), perf. rating 96
10/02 H #582 Bucyrus (3-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 26 (95%)
10/09 H #557 Willard (3-3) D5 R18, pick: W by 22 (93%)
10/16 A #652 Buckeye Central (1-5) D7 R26, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/23 A #258 Seneca East (5-1) D6 R22, pick: L by 24 (6%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
7.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#12 seed in R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
44% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.00 ( 3.90-12.00) 46% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Bellevue (4-2) 30%
Lose: 5.05 ( 2.65- 9.20) 5% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 7%) 6W: 10.05 ( 8.90-12.00) 99% in, 17% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Firelands (4-2) 26%
(80%) 5W: 7.00 ( 6.60-10.90) 46% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Bellevue (4-2) 33%
(12%) 4W: 5.35 ( 4.60- 7.80) 3% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 1%) 3W: 3.40 ( 2.65- 6.20) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 7%) WWWW: 10.05 ( 8.90-12.00) 99% in, 17% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Firelands (4-2) 26%
(80%) WWWL: 7.00 ( 6.60- 9.30) 46% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Bellevue (4-2) 33%
( 1%) WWLL: 6.30 ( 5.90- 7.80) 21% in, proj. out (#10-out), Otsego (4-2) 43%
( 7%) WLWL: 5.30 ( 4.60- 6.95) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Otsego (4-2) 43%
( 4%) LWWL: 5.10 ( 4.65- 7.00) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Otsego (4-2) 75%
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (2-4, 90.3, #426, D4 #70), 44% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 5 (2-3, 90.4, #422, D4 #70), 75% (bubble if 4-6), 2% home, proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 4 (2-2, 97.8, #383, D4 #60), 72% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 99.2, #370, D4 #56), 72% (bubble if 5-5), 15% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 92.9, #411, D4 #66), 54% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 105.0, #324, D4 #46), 78% (bubble if 5-5), 36% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 93.2, #417, D4 #63), 41% (bubble if 5-5), 15% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 93.3