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Rankings
#34 of 106 in Division 5
#10 of 26 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #66 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #22 in D5 (+138 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 21-6 H #392 Highland (Marengo) (2-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 8 (36%), perf. rating 118
08/29 W 34-14 H #454 Northridge (1-3) D5 R18, pick: W by 18 (82%), perf. rating 113
09/05 W 27-20 A #423 Utica (1-3) D5 R18, pick: W by 6 (63%), perf. rating 104
09/12 W 21-0 A #522 Cardington-Lincoln (2-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 23 (91%), perf. rating 110
09/19 A #431 Mount Gilead (4-0) D6 R23, pick: W by 14 (81%)
09/26 A #339 Northmor (2-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/03 H #529 Loudonville (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/10 A #499 East Knox (1-3) D6 R23, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/17 H #430 Danville (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 18 (88%)
10/24 H #270 Centerburg (3-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 4 (40%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
19.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#5 seed in R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
98% (bubble if 5-5), 76% home (maybe if 8-2), 28% bye (likely needs 10-0)
Depending on the next game
Win: 18.95 ( 9.15-25.10) 99% in, 86% home, 34% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 34%
Lose: 13.15 ( 6.70-21.15) 90% in, 32% home, 2% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Fairview (Fairv. Park) (2-2) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
(23%) 10W: 22.55 (20.70-25.10) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 97%
(31%) 9W: 19.30 (16.75-23.25) 100% in, 99% home, 19% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), bye 19%
(25%) 8W: 16.15 (13.85-21.20) 99% in, 76% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Fairview (Fairv. Park) (2-2) 23%
(14%) 7W: 13.50 (11.00-17.85) 99% in, 21% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Fairview (Fairv. Park) (2-2) 16%
( 5%) 6W: 11.20 ( 9.15-15.20) 88% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 23%
( 2%) 5W: 9.48 ( 7.65-12.35) 47% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(23%) WWWWWW: 22.55 (20.70-25.10) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 97%
( 9%) WLWWWW: 19.40 (17.15-22.10) 100% in, 99% home, 22% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 22%
(17%) WWWWWL: 18.95 (16.75-21.45) 100% in, 99% home, 12% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), Fairview (Fairv. Park) (2-2) 16%
( 3%) WWWWLL: 16.65 (14.70-18.50) 100% in, 81% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Fairview (Fairv. Park) (2-2) 23%
(14%) WLWWWL: 15.80 (13.85-18.20) 99% in, 72% home, proj. #8 (#5-out), Fairview (Fairv. Park) (2-2) 24%
( 4%) WLWWLL: 13.75 (11.65-15.50) 99% in, 22% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Fairview (Fairv. Park) (2-2) 17%
( 5%) LLWWWL: 12.85 (11.00-15.45) 99% in, 8% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Genoa Area (3-1) 14%
( 2%) LLWWLL: 10.60 ( 9.15-12.75) 79% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 24%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 107.0, #319, D5 #34), 98% (bubble if 5-5), 76% home (maybe if 8-2), 28% bye (likely needs 10-0), proj. #5 at 9-1
Week 3 (3-0, 106.7, #320, D5 #33), 93% (bubble if 5-5), 62% home (maybe if 8-2), 17% bye (likely needs 10-0), proj. #8 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 104.5, #328, D5 #36), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 52% home (maybe if 8-2), 8% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #8 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 103.0, #340, D5 #41), 71% (bubble if 6-4), 31% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 92.5, #427, D5 #56), 46% (bubble if 5-5), 20% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #11 at 5-5
Last season 95.7