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Rankings
#96 of 107 in Division 7
#26 of 26 in Region 25
Strength of schedule #65 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #99 in D7 (-765 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 56-8 H #537 Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) D7 R27, pick: W by 17 (78%), perf. rating 10
08/29 L 57-14 A #532 East Palestine (4-0) D7 R25, pick: L by 25 (10%), perf. rating 14
09/05 L 47-0 A #606 Jackson-Milton (3-1) D7 R25, pick: L by 14 (22%), perf. rating -1
09/12 L 68-8 H #535 Grand Valley (3-1) D6 R21, pick: L by 34 (2%), perf. rating 10
09/19 H #686 Cardinal (0-3) D7 R25, pick: L by 2 (45%)
09/26 A #679 Mathews (1-3) D7 R25, pick: L by 11 (24%)
10/04 A #664 St John School (1-3) D7 R25, pick: L by 18 (12%)
10/10 H #419 Pymatuning Valley (3-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 44 (1%)
10/17 H #663 Richmond Heights (0-4) D6 R21, pick: L by 14 (18%)
10/24 A #368 Fairport Harding (3-0) D7 R25, pick: L by 49 (1%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
0.71 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R25 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 2-8 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 1.47 ( 0.35- 7.67) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), East Palestine (4-0) 23%
Lose: 0.00 ( 0.00- 6.14) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 4W: 4.15 ( 3.75- 7.11) 28% in, proj. out (#9-out), East Palestine (4-0) 25%
(10%) 3W: 2.99 ( 2.22- 6.05) 3% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(18%) 2W: 1.82 ( 0.75- 4.88) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(32%) 1W: 0.71 ( 0.35- 3.46) out, proj. out
(38%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWLWL: 4.15 ( 3.75- 5.33) 26% in, proj. out (#10-out), East Palestine (4-0) 27%
( 3%) WWWLLL: 2.99 ( 2.99- 3.60) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), St Paul (2-2) 100%
( 5%) WLLLWL: 1.52 ( 0.75- 2.94) out
( 6%) WWLLLL: 1.47 ( 1.47- 2.59) out
( 5%) LLLLWL: 1.17 ( 0.76- 1.52) out
( 6%) LWLLLL: 0.76 ( 0.76- 2.24) out
(18%) WLLLLL: 0.35 ( 0.35- 1.68) out
(38%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 24.4, #689, D7 #96), 1% (must have at least 2-8 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 3 (0-3, 25.9, #687, D7 #96), 3% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 2 (0-2, 36.5, #671, D7 #83), 14% (bubble if 4-6), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 42.2, #665, D7 #82), 24% (bubble if 4-6), 10% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye, proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 69.2, #561, D7 #51), 72% (bubble if 4-5), 49% home (maybe if 6-3), 21% bye (maybe if 8-1), proj. #9 at 6-3
Last season 79.9