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Rankings
#73 of 100 in Division 2
#16 of 25 in Region 6
Strength of schedule #88 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #85 in D2 (-634 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 21-7 A #357 Firelands (2-1) D4 R14, pick: W by 8 (64%), perf. rating 83
08/28 L 27-26 A #363 Lakewood (3-0) D2 R6, pick: L by 22 (13%), perf. rating 100
09/04 W 21-6 A #514 Lakeside (1-2) D3 R9, pick: W by 6 (63%), perf. rating 102
09/11 H #510 John Adams (1-1) D3 R9, pick: W by 19 (87%)
09/18 H #8 Glenville (2-1) D2 R5, pick: L by 49 (1%)
09/25 A #591 John Marshall (0-3) D1 R1, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/02 H #668 John F Kennedy (Cle.) (0-2) D3 R9, pick: W by 44 (99%)
10/08 A #550 John Hay (1-2) D2 R5, pick: W by 21 (92%)
10/16 A #222 Gilmour Academy (2-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 25 (5%)
10/23 A #652 East Technical (0-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 38 (99%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
11.50 Harbin points (divisor 95)
#8 seed in R6 playoffs
Playoff chances now
77% (bubble if 5-5), 16% home (likely needs 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 11.50 ( 4.33-22.23) 87% in, 18% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Lakewood (3-0) 15%
Lose: 7.48 ( 1.63-16.47) 15% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Amherst Steele (3-0) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 7W: 15.21 (13.37-19.90) 100% in, 87% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Fremont Ross (1-2) 14%
(64%) 6W: 11.50 ( 9.87-16.40) 95% in, 12% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Lakewood (3-0) 16%
(20%) 5W: 8.53 ( 6.90-13.90) 36% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Lakewood (3-0) 17%
( 5%) 4W: 5.72 ( 4.56-10.83) 3% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 1%) 3W: 3.86 ( 2.76- 6.81) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWLW: 16.31 (14.63-18.21) 100% in, 93% home, proj. #7 (#5-#10), Fremont Ross (1-2) 17%
( 8%) WLWWWWW: 15.11 (13.37-18.53) 100% in, 86% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Fremont Ross (1-2) 14%
(63%) WLWWWLW: 11.50 (10.34-14.34) 95% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Lakewood (3-0) 16%
( 3%) WLLWWLW: 9.59 ( 7.96-11.54) 58% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Lakewood (3-0) 19%
( 8%) WLWWLLW: 8.59 ( 7.43-11.53) 39% in, proj. out (#9-out), Amherst Steele (3-0) 18%
( 8%) LLWWWLW: 7.53 ( 6.90-10.06) 17% in, proj. out (#9-out), Amherst Steele (3-0) 17%
( 3%) LLWWLLW: 5.14 ( 4.56- 7.62) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Findlay (3-0) 67%
( 1%) LLLWLLW: 3.33 ( 2.76- 4.60) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 94.8, #402, D2 #73), 77% (bubble if 5-5), 16% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 2 (0-2, 87.1, #451, D2 #79), 49% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 83.8, #469, D2 #84), 32% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 93.5, #412, D2 #78), 61% (bubble if 6-4), 31% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 93.3