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Rankings
#58 of 103 in Division 7
#18 of 26 in Region 26
Strength of schedule #60 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #59 in D7 (-247 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 26-6 A #667 Hardin Northern (0-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 15 (75%), perf. rating 63
08/28 L 49-6 H #329 Woodmore (3-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 27 (9%), perf. rating 41
09/04 L 26-20 H #532 Ayersville (1-2) D7 R26, pick: L by 19 (14%), perf. rating 65
09/11 A #700 Vanlue (0-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 47 (99%)
09/18 H #571 Ottawa Hills (3-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 6 (35%)
09/25 A #352 Pandora-Gilboa (1-2) D7 R26, pick: L by 35 (1%)
10/02 H #632 Crestline (2-1) D7 R27, pick: W by 11 (76%)
10/09 A #502 Beechcroft (1-2) D3 R11, pick: L by 22 (7%)
10/16 A #513 Elmwood (1-2) D6 R22, pick: L by 21 (8%)
10/23 H #678 Cory-Rawson (0-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 28 (97%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
3.93 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R26 playoffs
Playoff chances now
28% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.38 ( 1.05-14.67) 28% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Montpelier (3-0) 17%
Lose: 2.87 ( 0.35-11.59) 9% in, 2% home, proj. out (#5-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 7W: 10.02 ( 7.35-13.51) 99% in, 51% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Montpelier (3-0) 14%
(11%) 6W: 7.86 ( 5.63-11.34) 91% in, 7% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Montpelier (3-0) 16%
(26%) 5W: 5.79 ( 4.02- 8.67) 46% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Montpelier (3-0) 18%
(36%) 4W: 3.93 ( 2.56- 7.96) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out), Edon (3-0) 21%
(19%) 3W: 2.46 ( 1.76- 5.59) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 3%) 2W: 1.41 ( 1.05- 3.43) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWLWWWW: 10.12 ( 7.35-13.51) 99% in, 50% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Pandora-Gilboa (1-2) 16%
( 5%) WWLWLWW: 7.15 ( 5.63-10.48) 86% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Montpelier (3-0) 17%
(17%) WWLWLLW: 5.64 ( 4.83- 8.47) 43% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Montpelier (3-0) 18%
( 5%) WLLWLWW: 5.44 ( 4.02- 7.96) 32% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Edon (3-0) 20%
( 4%) WWLLLLW: 4.08 ( 3.37- 6.55) 3% in, proj. out (#10-out), North Baltimore (3-0) 24%
(29%) WLLWLLW: 3.93 ( 3.22- 6.45) 3% in, proj. out (#10-out), Edon (3-0) 18%
(16%) WLLLLLW: 2.46 ( 1.76- 5.39) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Pandora-Gilboa (1-2) 100%
( 3%) WLLLLLL: 1.41 ( 1.05- 3.33) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 59.0, #600, D7 #58), 28% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 56.1, #617, D7 #62), 27% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 62.0, #599, D7 #58), 37% (bubble if 6-4), 10% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 57.7, #613, D7 #63), 25% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 58.2