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Rankings
#55 of 104 in Division 2
#15 of 27 in Region 7
Strength of schedule #57 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #68 in D2 (-340 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 42-7 H #504 Central Crossing (0-4) D1 R3, pick: W by 8 (64%), perf. rating 129
08/29 L 34-27 A #197 Hamilton Township (4-0) D3 R11, pick: W by 22 (87%), perf. rating 115
09/05 L 7-0 H #144 Westerville South (3-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 23 (10%), perf. rating 121
09/12 W 27-26 A #236 Bishop Ready (1-3) D4 R15, pick: L by 4 (41%), perf. rating 121
09/19 A #390 Franklin Heights (3-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 18 (87%)
09/26 A #110 Bishop Hartley (3-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/03 H #258 Dublin Scioto (3-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/10 H #77 DeSales (Columbus) (3-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/17 A #407 University School (2-2) D2 R5, pick: W by 21 (92%)
10/24 H #4 Bishop Watterson (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 44 (1%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
13.20 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R7 playoffs
Playoff chances now
18% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.29 ( 5.13-23.39) 21% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Northland (2-2) 10%
Lose: 7.20 ( 2.26-15.93) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 7W: 19.96 (16.73-23.39) 100% in, 75% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), DeSales (Columbus) (3-1) 12%
( 9%) 6W: 16.33 (12.19-20.92) 81% in, 15% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Northland (2-2) 12%
(43%) 5W: 13.20 ( 9.87-16.99) 21% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Ashland (4-0) 13%
(32%) 4W: 9.93 ( 6.79-14.22) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(11%) 3W: 6.90 ( 3.82- 9.68) out, proj. out
( 2%) 2W: 4.08 ( 2.26- 5.70) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWL: 19.86 (16.73-23.39) 100% in, 74% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Walnut Ridge (1-3) 13%
( 4%) WLWWWL: 16.48 (12.19-20.92) 82% in, 20% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Northland (2-2) 14%
( 5%) WWWLWL: 16.13 (13.25-18.95) 79% in, 10% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Northland (2-2) 11%
(40%) WLWLWL: 13.20 ( 9.87-16.99) 21% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Ashland (4-0) 13%
(24%) WLLLWL: 9.67 ( 6.79-12.80) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Ashland (4-0) 20%
( 5%) WLLLLL: 7.36 ( 5.13- 9.53) out
( 5%) LLLLWL: 6.65 ( 3.82- 8.52) out
( 2%) LLLLLL: 4.08 ( 2.26- 5.70) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 117.5, #235, D2 #55), 18% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (1-2, 115.7, #247, D2 #57), 21% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 106.3, #318, D2 #72), 12% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (1-0, 117.5, #233, D2 #52), 61% (bubble if 4-6), 36% home (maybe if 6-4), 14% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 103.7, #327, D2 #70), 31% (bubble if 5-5), 15% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 101.9