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Rankings
#69 of 80 in Division 1
#18 of 20 in Region 3
Strength of schedule #77 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #37 in D1 (+35 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 42-7 A #551 Central Crossing (0-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 18 (80%), perf. rating 125
08/28 W 28-26 H #288 Hamilton Township (1-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 7 (64%), perf. rating 111
09/04 A #198 Westerville South (1-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 13 (23%)
09/11 H #205 Bishop Ready (2-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 8 (32%)
09/18 H #453 Franklin Heights (0-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 25 (94%)
09/25 H #262 Bishop Hartley (1-1) D3 R11, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/02 A #358 Dublin Scioto (1-1) D1 R2, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/09 A #21 DeSales (Columbus) (2-0) D2 R7, pick: L by 40 (1%)
10/16 H #272 University School (2-0) D3 R9, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/23 A #2 Bishop Watterson (2-0) D2 R7, pick: L by 49 (1%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
3.79 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R3 playoffs
Playoff chances now
51% (bubble if 5-5), 17% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.35 ( 2.25- 7.62) 88% in, 52% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Pickerington Central (0-2) 11%
Lose: 3.69 ( 1.31- 6.76) 41% in, 7% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Olentangy Orange (1-1) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 7%) 8W: 6.24 ( 5.80- 6.78) 100% in, 96% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#10), Newark (2-0) 10%
(15%) 7W: 5.39 ( 4.91- 6.05) 99% in, 56% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Pickerington Central (0-2) 13%
(21%) 6W: 4.58 ( 4.10- 5.13) 93% in, 7% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Pickerington Central (0-2) 11%
(22%) 5W: 3.79 ( 3.28- 4.44) 40% in, proj. out (#9-out), Olentangy Orange (1-1) 17%
(18%) 4W: 3.03 ( 2.71- 3.50) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(14%) 3W: 2.27 ( 2.00- 2.70) out, proj. out
( 3%) 2W: 1.57 ( 1.31- 1.79) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 7%) WWWWWLWL: 6.24 ( 5.80- 6.78) 100% in, 97% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Olentangy Liberty (0-2) 10%
( 7%) LWWWWLWL: 5.40 ( 4.91- 5.82) 99% in, 54% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Pickerington Central (0-2) 13%
( 9%) LLWWWLWL: 4.52 ( 4.17- 4.97) 92% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Pickerington Central (0-2) 11%
( 7%) LLWLWLWL: 3.85 ( 3.42- 4.17) 43% in, proj. out (#9-out), Worthington Kilbourne (2-0) 16%
( 6%) LLWWWLLL: 3.64 ( 3.28- 3.94) 28% in, proj. out (#9-out), Olentangy Orange (1-1) 18%
( 8%) LLWLWLLL: 2.98 ( 2.72- 3.28) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Pickerington North (1-1) 40%
(11%) LLWLLLLL: 2.27 ( 2.00- 2.50) out
( 3%) LLLLLLLL: 1.57 ( 1.31- 1.79) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (2-0, 112.1, #280, D1 #69), 44% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 114.3, #255, D1 #65), 36% (bubble if 6-4), 9% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 105.1, #315, D1 #73), 34% (bubble if 4-6), 12% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 106.9