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Rankings
#44 of 107 in Division 3
#9 of 26 in Region 11
Strength of schedule #74 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #21 in D3 (+73 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 27-25 H #328 Whitehall-Yearling (2-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 28 (90%), perf. rating 106
08/29 W 34-27 H #235 St Charles (2-2) D2 R7, pick: L by 22 (13%), perf. rating 126
09/05 W 46-6 A #497 Independence (Cbus) (2-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 11 (73%), perf. rating 141
09/12 W 35-7 H #324 Fairfield Union (1-3) D4 R15, pick: W by 9 (70%), perf. rating 146
09/19 A #173 Buckeye Valley (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 6 (35%)
09/26 A #259 Amanda-Clearcreek (1-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 7 (67%)
10/03 H #342 Circleville (4-0) D4 R15, pick: W by 21 (91%)
10/10 A #490 Liberty Union (3-1) D6 R23, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/17 H #187 Bloom-Carroll (2-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/24 A #470 Logan Elm (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 31 (98%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
22.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#6 seed in R11 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 92% home (maybe if 6-4), 44% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 28.90 (15.95-34.40) 100% in, 99% home, 90% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#10), bye 90%
Lose: 21.80 (10.50-29.25) 99% in, 87% home, 19% bye, proj. #6 (#2-out), bye 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
(18%) 10W: 30.65 (25.80-34.40) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(30%) 9W: 26.10 (21.65-31.90) 100% home, 70% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 70%
(28%) 8W: 22.40 (17.30-28.65) 100% in, 99% home, 18% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 18%
(17%) 7W: 18.95 (14.30-25.40) 100% in, 81% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Athens (4-0) 20%
( 6%) 6W: 15.60 (11.85-20.35) 99% in, 31% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Bishop Hartley (3-1) 18%
( 1%) 5W: 13.65 (10.50-17.55) 90% in, 10% home, proj. #10 (#7-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(18%) WWWWWW: 30.65 (25.80-34.40) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 3%) WLWWWW: 27.70 (24.20-30.45) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 98%
( 7%) WWWWLW: 27.05 (22.65-30.45) 100% home, 94% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#6), bye 94%
(18%) LWWWWW: 25.55 (21.65-29.25) 100% home, 54% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 54%
( 7%) LLWWWW: 22.50 (19.20-26.75) 100% home, 18% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 18%
(14%) LWWWLW: 22.00 (18.55-25.50) 100% in, 99% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Athens (4-0) 17%
(12%) LLWWLW: 19.00 (14.60-23.00) 100% in, 81% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#12), Athens (4-0) 21%
( 4%) LLLWLW: 15.05 (11.85-18.15) 99% in, 21% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Bishop Hartley (3-1) 17%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 123.5, #197, D3 #44), likely in, 92% home (maybe if 6-4), 44% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 3 (3-0, 121.1, #211, D3 #44), likely in, 91% home (maybe if 5-5), 33% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 105.4, #324, D3 #63), 81% (bubble if 5-5), 55% home (maybe if 7-3), 22% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 92.9, #418, D3 #79), 30% (bubble if 6-4), 12% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 102.8, #333, D3 #68), 39% (bubble if 7-3), 20% home (maybe if 8-2), 5% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 97.8