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Rankings
#23 of 104 in Division 2
#6 of 27 in Region 7
Strength of schedule #9 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #17 in D2 (+225 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 14-13 H #72 Olentangy Berlin (0-4) D1 R3, pick: L by 12 (28%), perf. rating 146
08/29 W 34-0 H #305 Northland (2-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 36 (96%), perf. rating 157
09/05 W 35-18 A #158 Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) D5 R19, pick: W by 8 (67%), perf. rating 158
09/12 L 38-21 H #33 Badin (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 3 (43%), perf. rating 133
09/19 A Winchester George Rogers Clark KY (3-1) D1
09/26 H #4 Bishop Watterson (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/03 A Cabell Midland WV (0-2) D1
10/10 A #235 St Charles (2-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/17 A #50 Harrison (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 8 (30%)
10/24 A #110 Bishop Hartley (3-1) D3 R11, pick: W by 4 (60%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
22.67 Harbin points (divisor 96)
#3 seed in R7 playoffs
Playoff chances now
98% (likely in at 4-6 or better), 88% home (maybe if 5-5), 51% bye (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 25.95 (14.95-40.20) 99% in, 98% home, 72% bye, proj. #3 (#1-out), bye 72%
Lose: 20.75 (11.57-34.70) 96% in, 77% home, 31% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 32%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 8W: 31.62 (26.52-36.32) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(27%) 7W: 26.86 (21.44-33.42) 100% home, 91% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 91%
(34%) 6W: 22.67 (17.46-30.53) 100% in, 99% home, 43% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#12), bye 43%
(22%) 5W: 19.04 (13.37-25.61) 99% in, 69% home, 7% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), Walnut Ridge (1-3) 12%
( 6%) 4W: 16.36 (11.57-20.79) 80% in, 23% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Northland (2-2) 13%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 8%) WLWWWW: 31.57 (26.52-35.64) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 8%) LLWWWW: 26.76 (21.91-30.09) 100% home, 90% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 90%
(12%) WLWWLW: 26.18 (21.44-31.34) 100% home, 88% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 88%
(11%) WLWWLL: 23.08 (17.87-27.14) 100% in, 99% home, 44% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 44%
(11%) LLWWLW: 21.36 (17.46-24.59) 100% in, 97% home, 20% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 20%
( 4%) WLLWLL: 21.28 (17.43-25.61) 100% in, 95% home, 22% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 22%
(11%) LLWWLL: 17.79 (13.37-21.07) 98% in, 50% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Walnut Ridge (1-3) 13%
( 2%) LLWLLL: 14.69 (11.57-16.83) 48% in, 4% home, proj. out (#7-out), Northland (2-2) 14%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 145.1, #77, D2 #23), 98% (likely in at 4-6 or better), 88% home (maybe if 5-5), 51% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #3 at 6-4
Week 3 (3-0, 148.9, #64, D2 #18), likely in, 95% home (maybe if 5-5), 71% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #3 at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 147.6, #69, D2 #22), 96% (bubble if 4-6), 84% home (maybe if 5-5), 57% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #3 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 146.0, #76, D2 #22), 98% (bubble if 3-7), 91% home (maybe if 4-6), 69% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #2 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 141.3, #97, D2 #22), 87% (bubble if 3-7), 68% home (maybe if 4-6), 40% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #4 at 5-5
Last season 143.5