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Rankings
#35 of 105 in Division 4
#7 of 28 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #30 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #66 in D4 (-257 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 20-6 A #223 Dalton (3-1) D6 R21, pick: L by 9 (34%), perf. rating 100
08/29 W 30-0 H #397 Licking Heights (0-4) D2 R7, pick: W by 24 (89%), perf. rating 138
09/05 L 35-20 A #99 Licking Valley (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 11 (27%), perf. rating 121
09/12 L 27-26 H #235 St Charles (2-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 4 (59%), perf. rating 114
09/19 H #427 KIPP Columbus (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 25 (94%)
09/26 A #328 Whitehall-Yearling (2-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/03 A #173 Buckeye Valley (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 12 (22%)
10/10 H #467 Bexley (2-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 30 (98%)
10/17 A #273 Columbus Academy (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 3 (58%)
10/24 H #390 Franklin Heights (3-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 21 (92%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
11.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
58% (bubble if 5-5), 26% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.25 ( 1.95-22.50) 60% in, 28% home, 3% bye, proj. #11 (#2-out), East (Columbus) (3-1) 11%
Lose: 9.90 ( 1.65-20.10) 27% in, 6% home, proj. out (#5-out), Johnstown (2-2) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
(15%) 7W: 20.00 (18.15-22.50) 100% in, 99% home, 18% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), bye 18%
(31%) 6W: 15.00 (12.70-20.10) 99% in, 35% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), East (Columbus) (3-1) 13%
(29%) 5W: 11.30 ( 8.75-17.75) 39% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 16%
(17%) 4W: 8.15 ( 5.30-13.45) 2% in, proj. out (#9-out)
( 6%) 3W: 5.30 ( 3.70- 9.45) out, proj. out
( 1%) 2W: 3.85 ( 1.95- 5.70) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(15%) WWWWWW: 20.00 (18.15-22.50) 100% in, 99% home, 18% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), bye 18%
( 4%) WWWWLW: 16.05 (14.25-18.65) 100% in, 57% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Philo (3-1) 14%
(24%) WWLWWW: 14.75 (12.70-17.65) 99% in, 27% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), East (Columbus) (3-1) 13%
( 7%) WLLWWW: 11.30 ( 9.40-14.75) 38% in, proj. out (#9-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 17%
(16%) WWLWLW: 11.22 ( 8.75-14.25) 32% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 16%
( 9%) WLLWLW: 8.00 ( 6.40-10.95) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Circleville (4-0) 50%
( 3%) WWLWLL: 7.95 ( 5.30-10.60) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 50%
( 4%) WLLWLL: 4.95 ( 3.75- 7.45) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 117.2, #236, D4 #35), 58% (bubble if 5-5), 26% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye, proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (1-2, 118.2, #233, D4 #35), 62% (bubble if 5-5), 30% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 121.8, #208, D4 #26), 79% (bubble if 5-5), 53% home (maybe if 7-3), 24% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 1 (0-1, 119.8, #213, D4 #26), 69% (bubble if 5-5), 45% home (maybe if 6-4), 19% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 123.7, #187, D4 #19), 77% (bubble if 5-5), 61% home (maybe if 6-4), 38% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 7-3
Last season 122.2