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Rankings
#21 of 107 in Division 3
#5 of 26 in Region 11
Strength of schedule #9 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #18 in D3 (+140 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 55-42 H #265 Elyria Catholic (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 28 (90%), perf. rating 131
08/29 L 34-7 A #9 Ursuline (2-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 35 (4%), perf. rating 140
09/05 W 6-0 H #189 Walnut Ridge (1-3) D2 R7, pick: W by 22 (89%), perf. rating 132
09/12 W 35-7 H #233 Watkins Memorial (1-3) D2 R7, pick: W by 21 (89%), perf. rating 157
09/19 A #33 Badin (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 22 (8%)
09/26 H #235 St Charles (2-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/03 A #6 Walsh Jesuit (4-0) D2 R5, pick: L by 35 (1%)
10/10 A #4 Bishop Watterson (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 36 (1%)
10/17 A #427 KIPP Columbus (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 35 (99%)
10/24 H #77 DeSales (Columbus) (3-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 4 (40%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
14.35 Harbin points (divisor 90)
#9 seed in R11 playoffs
Playoff chances now
94% (bubble if 4-6), 37% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 23.22 (14.63-34.76) 100% in, 94% home, 22% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#11), bye 22%
Lose: 15.39 ( 7.69-33.27) 94% in, 32% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Athens (4-0) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 7W: 24.33 (19.78-29.22) 100% in, 99% home, 31% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 31%
(38%) 6W: 18.56 (13.51-25.06) 99% in, 68% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Athens (4-0) 19%
(49%) 5W: 14.35 ( 9.07-20.51) 95% in, 10% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Granville (3-1) 17%
( 7%) 4W: 11.13 ( 7.69-16.57) 52% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Granville (3-1) 18%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) WWLLWW: 24.56 (19.78-29.22) 100% home, 31% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 31%
( 3%) WWLLWL: 20.12 (15.96-23.12) 100% in, 88% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Athens (4-0) 21%
(34%) LWLLWW: 18.45 (13.51-23.06) 99% in, 66% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Athens (4-0) 20%
( 2%) LLLLWW: 14.68 (10.63-18.07) 98% in, 15% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Bloom-Carroll (2-2) 19%
(47%) LWLLWL: 14.29 ( 9.07-18.52) 95% in, 9% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Granville (3-1) 17%
( 1%) LWLLLL: 13.07 (10.91-16.57) 92% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Granville (3-1) 19%
( 6%) LLLLWL: 10.75 ( 7.69-14.64) 43% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Granville (3-1) 18%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 139.4, #110, D3 #21), 94% (bubble if 4-6), 37% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 133.0, #143, D3 #29), 71% (bubble if 4-6), 19% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 136.3, #121, D3 #21), 62% (bubble if 5-5), 25% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 137.5, #120, D3 #24), 69% (bubble if 4-6), 34% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 141.6, #96, D3 #20), 62% (bubble if 5-5), 34% home (maybe if 7-3), 12% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Last season 140.5