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Rankings
#79 of 100 in Division 2
#18 of 25 in Region 6
Strength of schedule #93 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #80 in D2 (-607 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 34-17 A #518 Norwalk (0-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 5 (59%), perf. rating 105
08/28 L 33-6 A #272 Clyde (1-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 9 (67%), perf. rating 75
09/04 L 22-6 H #317 Edison (Milan) (1-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 9 (31%), perf. rating 81
09/10 H #566 Scott (0-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 22 (90%)
09/18 A #491 Waite (1-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 6 (65%)
09/25 H #592 Rogers (0-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/02 H #204 Lima Senior (2-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/09 A Blackhawk Christian IN (1-2) D6
10/15 A #575 Bowsher (0-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 21 (92%)
10/22 H #645 Woodward (Toledo) (0-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 36 (99%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
10.05 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#12 seed in R6 playoffs
Playoff chances now
55% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.10 ( 1.65-19.15) 60% in, 12% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#4-out), Lakewood (3-0) 16%
Lose: 6.00 ( 0.55-16.80) 15% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Lakewood (3-0) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 8W: 16.80 (15.40-19.15) 100% in, 98% home, 1% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#10), Rhodes (1-2) 21%
(26%) 7W: 12.15 (10.45-17.25) 98% in, 29% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Lakewood (3-0) 16%
(40%) 6W: 10.05 ( 7.35-15.70) 64% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Lakewood (3-0) 17%
(21%) 5W: 7.20 ( 4.75-11.30) 9% in, proj. out (#9-out), Lakewood (3-0) 22%
( 8%) 4W: 4.90 ( 3.00- 9.30) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 2%) 3W: 3.20 ( 1.90- 6.10) out, proj. out
( 1%) 2W: 1.65 ( 1.10- 4.45) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWWWW: 16.80 (15.40-19.15) 100% in, 98% home, 1% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#10), Rhodes (1-2) 21%
( 3%) WWWWLWW: 15.10 (14.30-16.90) 100% in, 89% home, proj. #7 (#5-#11), Fremont Ross (1-2) 14%
(23%) WWWLWWW: 12.05 (10.45-15.35) 98% in, 22% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Lakewood (3-0) 16%
(24%) WWWLLWW: 10.10 ( 9.60-12.70) 80% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Lakewood (3-0) 17%
( 3%) WWWLWLW: 9.60 ( 7.95-13.10) 55% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Lakewood (3-0) 20%
(10%) WLWLWWW: 8.75 ( 7.35-11.85) 22% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Clay (3-0) 17%
(10%) WLWLLWW: 7.05 ( 6.25- 9.25) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out), Lakewood (3-0) 20%
( 1%) LLWLLLW: 3.15 ( 2.25- 5.30) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 89.3, #436, D2 #79), 55% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 91.1, #416, D2 #76), 63% (bubble if 6-4), 26% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 106.1, #318, D2 #62), 80% (bubble if 6-4), 38% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #8 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 99.4, #374, D2 #71), 67% (bubble if 5-5), 33% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #11 at 6-4
Last season 97.3