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Rankings
#81 of 100 in Division 2
#21 of 26 in Region 6
Strength of schedule #95 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #72 in D2 (-480 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 34-17 A #571 Norwalk (0-6) D3 R10, pick: W by 5 (59%), perf. rating 94
08/28 L 33-6 A #343 Clyde (1-5) D4 R14, pick: W by 9 (67%), perf. rating 65
09/04 L 22-6 H #340 Edison (Milan) (2-4) D5 R18, pick: L by 9 (31%), perf. rating 77
09/10 W 28-6 H #565 Scott (1-5) D3 R10, pick: W by 22 (90%), perf. rating 99
09/18 L 12-6 A #425 Waite (4-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 84
09/25 W 26-12 H #590 Rogers (1-5) D2 R6, pick: W by 26 (95%), perf. rating 81
10/02 H #182 Lima Senior (5-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/09 A Blackhawk Christian IN (2-4) D6
10/15 A #566 Bowsher (1-5) D2 R6, pick: W by 15 (84%)
10/22 H #650 Woodward (Toledo) (0-6) D3 R10, pick: W by 35 (99%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
6.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R6 playoffs
Playoff chances now
7% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.80 ( 9.75-15.35) 95% in, 21% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Waite (4-2) 21%
Lose: 7.60 ( 3.55-10.90) 5% in, proj. out (#9-out), Lakewood (5-1) 36%
Based on eventual number of wins
(46%) 6W: 8.60 ( 7.80-13.30) 13% in, proj. out (#9-out), Lakewood (5-1) 33%
(45%) 5W: 6.95 ( 5.80-11.55) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 8%) 4W: 5.20 ( 4.25- 8.10) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(45%) LWWW: 8.60 ( 7.80-10.90) 11% in, proj. out (#9-out), Lakewood (5-1) 35%
(34%) LLWW: 7.00 ( 6.55- 9.05) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Lakewood (5-1) 50%
(10%) LWLW: 6.65 ( 5.80- 9.45) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Lakewood (5-1) 50%
( 7%) LLLW: 5.20 ( 4.25- 7.55) out
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (3-3, 84.5, #472, D2 #81), 7% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 5-5
Week 5 (2-3, 84.7, #466, D2 #81), 9% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 4 (2-2, 87.6, #449, D2 #78), 48% (bubble if 6-4), 10% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 3 (1-2, 89.3, #436, D2 #79), 55% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 91.1, #416, D2 #76), 63% (bubble if 6-4), 26% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 106.1, #318, D2 #62), 80% (bubble if 6-4), 38% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #8 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 99.4, #374, D2 #71), 67% (bubble if 5-5), 33% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #11 at 6-4
Last season 97.3