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Rankings
#80 of 107 in Division 3
#22 of 28 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #29 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #67 in D3 (-350 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 17-14 A #432 Start (1-3) D2 R6, pick: L by 12 (29%), perf. rating 97
08/29 L 36-6 H #140 Ontario (2-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 25 (10%), perf. rating 87
09/05 L 41-0 H #52 Galion (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 31 (4%), perf. rating 87
09/12 L 19-0 A #256 Bellevue (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 20 (12%), perf. rating 89
09/19 A #170 Edison (Milan) (3-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 31 (3%)
09/26 H #285 Vermilion (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 17 (14%)
10/03 H #156 Tiffin Columbian (1-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/10 A #102 Perkins (1-3) D4 R14, pick: L by 37 (1%)
10/17 H #386 Sandusky (1-3) D2 R6, pick: L by 4 (40%)
10/24 A #362 Clyde (0-4) D4 R14, pick: L by 11 (23%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
4.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.20 ( 4.60-17.70) 20% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Lose: 4.45 ( 1.65-15.80) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 4W: 9.15 ( 6.45-13.55) 7% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(17%) 3W: 6.55 ( 3.95-11.45) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(36%) 2W: 4.65 ( 2.15- 8.45) out, proj. out
(41%) 1W: 3.40 ( 1.65- 4.60) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) LWLLWW: 8.95 ( 6.45-11.10) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Holy Name (3-1) 25%
( 4%) LWLLWL: 7.60 ( 5.90- 9.65) out
( 2%) LWLLLW: 6.75 ( 5.10- 8.85) out
( 9%) LLLLWW: 6.10 ( 3.95- 8.20) out
( 4%) LWLLLL: 5.85 ( 3.90- 8.45) out
(21%) LLLLWL: 4.65 ( 2.90- 6.70) out
( 9%) LLLLLW: 3.90 ( 2.15- 6.60) out
(41%) LLLLLL: 3.40 ( 1.65- 4.60) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 91.6, #425, D3 #80), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (1-2, 95.9, #396, D3 #76), 7% (bubble if 4-6), 2% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (1-1, 100.1, #363, D3 #69), 18% (bubble if 4-6), 6% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (1-0, 98.0, #372, D3 #73), 20% (bubble if 4-6), 8% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye, proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 92.6, #426, D3 #79), 8% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 1-9
Last season 92.3